FNUS75 KPUB 171332
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR FOURTH NEWLIN...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
732 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...IT LOOKS LIKE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH THE SMOKE DISPERSAL EVENTUALLY BECOMING VERY GOOD...
HOWEVER...EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 12000 FT MSL
WILL BE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND WHEN THIS HAPPENS...THE MIXING
HEIGHT WILL DECREASE AND THE SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL BECOME POOR AND WILL
THEN STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  A SIMILAR THING IS EXPECTED TO
HAPPEN ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL
BE GOOD. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY...HOWEVER IF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE...ERRATIC WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRIER...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AS
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  SMOKE DISPERSAL SHOULD
BE BETTER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1300 THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    BECOMING EAST AROUND 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 12000 FT AGL AFTER 1100...THEN
                    DECREASING TO AROUND 2700 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    EAST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL
                    1400...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(52 PERCENT) UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(49 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY(62 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-70 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    EAST 2-5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    2100.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(48 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........VARIABLE 2-5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST AROUND 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 500 FEET AGL UNTIL 0700. 10000 FT AGL
                    BY 0900...THEN 4300 BY 1200.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH....UNTIL 1200 THEN EAST AROUND
                    8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.

$$
FORECASTER...EVENSON
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090717.FOURT.01/PUB