FNUS75 KPUB 201249
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR PIERCE GULCH...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
649 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2009

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
PUSHES INTO AREA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED...WITH
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BACK
UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD RH RECOVERY. MOISTURE
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS
WITH EXPECTED SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERTORMS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(20 PERCENT) UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY(65 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....91-96F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH UNTIL 1500
                    THEN NORTHEAST 10-15. GUSTS TO 25 MPH AFTER
                    1500.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 13000 FT AGL AFTER
                    1100.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2 UNTIL 1500...THEN 3.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(67 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63F.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN
                    EAST 5-10 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 UNTIL 2200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 500 FT AGL AFTER 0300.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 18 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(65 PERCENT). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST TO SOUTHEAST 8-12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0700...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1700...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.

$$
FORECASTER...WANKOWSKI
REQUESTED BY...TOM TILLMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090720.PIERC.01/PUB