FNUS75 KPUB 202044
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WARREN FIRE...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
244 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2009

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. CONVECTION WILL BE
HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT...WITH THE CURRENT
MOISTURE...MAY ALLOW FOR A STRATUS DECK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EARLY TO MID EVENING
SHOWERS. TOMORROW...IF THE SKIES CLEAR BY MIDDAY...THERE IS A  BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(55 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(66 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64F.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH WINDS 9-13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1500 FT AGL AFTER 2100.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 20 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN NORTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(58 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST AROUND 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN POOR UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.

$$
FORECASTER...CERU
REQUESTED BY...TOM TILLMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090720.WARRE.01/PUB