FNUS75 KRIW 232336 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK...BLM WOD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 536 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1659 MDT ON JULY 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ABSAROKA...ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE CODY FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...THEY COULD SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS FAR EAST AS THE BURN SITE...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE DIRECTION OF THIS OUTFLOW SHOULD BE NORTHWEST TO WEST IF IT OCCURS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE COWBOY STATE ON FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE FIRE SITE. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS WILL BE TOMORROW. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MURRELL .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....54 TO 58. MAX HUMIDITY........AROUND 70 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......EAST NORTHEAST 3-6 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 2000 LOCAL...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS 3-6 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT WEAKEN OVER THE CODY FOOTHILLS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST TO NORTHEAST 4-8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST TO NORTHEAST 4-8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (95300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (2100 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....90-93. MIN HUMIDITY........16-21 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE 3-6 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH 5-10 MPH BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200 LOCAL. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200 LOCAL. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200 LOCAL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (64200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (130200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MURRELL REQUESTED BY...NICK JANOTA REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090723.DUCK_.01/RIW