FNUS72 KMHX 271415 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR CAROLINA BAY FIRE...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1015 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0946 EDT ON JULY 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON SEA BREEZE OVER AREA THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY NOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF AREA AND MOVE INTO REGION BY 6 PM. SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RAINFALL LIKELY 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH BUT COULD BE OVER 1 INCH IF GET HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 22 MPH. TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........76 77 78 78 79 79 79 79 78 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............80 88 88 86 86 86 84 84 84 RH..............85 75 75 80 80 80 85 85 85 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 20 20 20 20 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 17 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........78 78 77 76 76 71 WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 79 77 75 74 74 RH..............70 82 87 94 97 93 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 6 SW 6 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-4600 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........65 60 60 60 59 59 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............73 75 79 84 85 85 RH..............97 90 79 67 65 67 20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 15 15 $$ FORECASTER...MERRELL REQUESTED BY...DAVID NELSON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090727.CAROL.01/MHX