FNUS75 KGJT 280714
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TAYLOR CANYON...USFS GUNNISON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
114 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON JULY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT A COLD FRONT SWEPT NORTH AND
EAST OF THE BURN SITE MONDAY EVENING.  THE GRADIENT WINDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. THE OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE PRODUCING SUSTAINED 20-FOOT
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. AFTERNOON GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH
ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING RH. MOISTURE
REMAINS MARGINAL. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY MONDAY...OPENING
THE DOOR FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED AFTERNOON
                    THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING LITTLE RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-73 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 2-5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 10-15 MPH
                    AFTER 1200. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR AFTERNOON
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. THEN RISING TO
                    10000 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 17 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR AS THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION SETS UP QUICKLY.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
                    PRODUCING LITTLE RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-76 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-28%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 2-5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 10-15 MPH
                    AFTER 1200. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR AFTERNOON
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING FAIR BY 1000...EXCELLENT BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 10000 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS 65-70. MIN RH 30-35% NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 70-75.
MIN RH 22-27%. AFTERNOON WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 72-77.
MIN RH 20-25% AFTERNOON WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...J  CHONKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090728.TAYLO.01/GJT