FNUS72 KMHX 291357
FWSMHX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CAROLINA BAY FIRE...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
957 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0948 EDT ON JULY 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE NW OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL REFORM W OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING
                    TO 20 TO 26 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND
                    25 MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........24     39     50     59     66
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............87     88     88     87     87
RH..............75     68     68     68     70
20 FT WIND......SW 11  SW 13  SW 15  SW 17  SW 17
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     25     26     26
HAINES INDEX....3      3      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 27 MPH...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 900 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........66     80     73     69     65     66
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............85     81     78     76     75     75
RH..............70     77     85     90     94     94
20 FT WIND......SW 20  SW 15  SW 13  SW 10  SW 7   SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.26     20     20     20     15     15

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4700 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 23 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........66     66     62     59     56     60
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............73     76     82     87     89     89
RH..............100    90     74     63     59     61
20 FT WIND......SW 9   SW 10  SW 11  SW 11  SW 10  SW 11
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     15     15

$$
FORECASTER...FREDERICK
REQUESTED BY...DAVID NELSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090729.CAROL.01/MHX