FNUS72 KMHX 011430 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR CAROLINA BAY FIRE...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1030 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0935 EDT ON AUGUST 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN WILL BE IMPROVING OVER THE FIRE SITE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TODAY CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA IS LIMITING INSTABILITY AND THUS THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. BY THE TIME ENOUGH CLOUD COVER ERODES...THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FIRE SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION EXPECTED WEST OF THE FIRE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL OVER THE FIRE. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS A ROBUST IMPULSE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE AFFECTS COULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS FROM THE FIRE SITE...THESE EFFECTS WILL BE NEGATED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS ALONG THE COAST. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY SOUTHWEST 10 GUSTING TO 20 MPH BECOMING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 22 MPH. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........76 80 83 83 83 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............82 85 85 86 84 RH..............82 72 72 72 74 20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 SW 8 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 20 22 22 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 24 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........83 82 81 79 77 76 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............84 81 79 78 77 76 RH..............74 82 88 91 94 97 20 FT WIND......S 8 S 7 SW 7 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 15 10 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........74 73 77 84 89 89 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............76 77 81 84 85 85 RH..............94 90 77 70 70 67 20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 8 SW 9 SW 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 20 22 22 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...DAVID NELSON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090801.CAROL.01/MHX