FNAK79 PAFG 030038
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR 284 ZITZIANA- RAWS...BLM/ALASKA FIRE SERVICE UYTD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
438 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0804 AKDT ON AUGUST 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SIGNALING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD
MINIMUM RH BELOW 30 PERCENT. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH
MID WEEK. POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR
LOW HUMIDITY. DRIEST AIR WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT
ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY CALM EACH NIGHT AND THERE WILL BE GRADUAL
WARMING ALOFT ALLOWING INVERSIONS TO FORM EXACERBATING THE SMOKE
PROBLEM NEAR THE FIRE. THE INVERSIONS WILL BREAK AROUND 0900
EVERY MORNING...CLEARING UP THE SMOKE A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THE
FIRES BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL SEND A WEATHER FRONT
INTO THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MINIMUM
RHS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. IN ADDITION...WINDS COULD GUST UP
TO 20 MPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BEGINNING AROUND 2100 ON MONDAY NIGHT.

GAP FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE ALASKA RANGE ON TUESDAY AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS COULD BLEED THROUGH THE PASSES TO THE SOUTHERN REACHES
OF THE FIRE. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST ONCE THE GAP FLOW
CEASES AND AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY.

THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WORK ON PUSHING THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND
INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS...A FEW SHORT WAVES
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

A GLIMMER OF HOPE...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO NORMAL COOL WET AND
RAINY AUGUST WEATHER...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME VERY HOT AND DRY
DAYS TO GET THROUGH BEFORE THEN WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR LOW HUMIDITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SMOKY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73.
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SMOKY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43.
MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........EAST AROUND 5 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SMOKY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........EAST AROUND 8 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
DRY AND WARMER. SMOKY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW 48. HIGH 85. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH BECOMING SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTING TO 22 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING CLOUDS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW 50. HIGH 79. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
.THURSDAY...
NOT AS WARM. DECREASING CLOUDS. LOW 52. HIGH 75. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 6 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 51. HIGH 74. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...WEBB
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090802.284ZI.01/AFG