FNAK79 PAFG 030057
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCK SLOUGH  347...BLM/ALASKA FIRE SERVICE UYTD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
457 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0815 AKDT ON AUGUST 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LOW HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SIGNALING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD
MINIMUM RH BELOW 30 PERCENT. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH
MID WEEK. POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON MONDAY TUESDAY AND EVEN
WEDNESDAY FOR LOW HUMIDITY. DRIEST AIR WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY CALM EACH NIGHT AND THERE WILL BE GRADUAL
WARMING ALOFT ALLOWING INVERSIONS TO FORM EXACERBATING THE SMOKE
PROBLEM NEAR THE FIRE. THE INVERSIONS WILL BREAK AROUND 0900
EVERY MORNING...CLEARING UP THE SMOKE A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THE
FIRES BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL SEND A WEATHER FRONT
INTO THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MINIMUM
RHS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. IN ADDITION...WINDS COULD GUST UP
TO 20 MPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY EVENING.

A GLIMMER OF HOPE...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO NORMAL COOL WET AND
RAINY AUGUST WEATHER...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME VERY HOT AND DRY
DAYS TO GET THROUGH BEFORE THEN WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR LOW HUMIDITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH GUSTING TO 16 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 12 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43.
MAX HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 1600.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE. LOW 47. HIGH 82. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 50. HIGH 82. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 50. HIGH 80. LIGHT WINDS.

$$
FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...EPP
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090802.ROCKS.01/AFG