FNUS73 KAPX 011839 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR JIMNY...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 239 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1435 EDT ON AUGUST 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER THE STATE. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF MILD AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE STATE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 79. RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 28 TO 36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-7700 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(2900). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........28 46 12 24 84 84 WEATHER COV..... LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............58 57 69 76 79 76 RH..............83 100 72 56 45 52 20 FT WIND......N 0 S 2 SW 5 SW 5 SW 9 SW 12 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 20 15 20 25 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 100 1000 2400 2900 2700 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57. RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM SKY (%).........90 73 63 49 WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE TEMP............72 66 61 60 RH..............61 78 90 87 20 FT WIND......SW 12G25 SW 9G20 SW 6G15 SW 5G10 SMOKE DISP......1700 400 0 0 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). RH..................40 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION. OTHERWISE WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........49 37 37 41 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RH..............90 65 46 40 20 FT WIND......W 5G10 W 4G10 W 8G15 SW 11G25 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 4 $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT ROZANSKI REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090802.JIMNY.01/APX