FNUS75 KBOU 031857 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR MAGNOLIA WILDFIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1255 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE FIRE REGION. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. THE STORMS WILL END DURING THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO DRAINAGE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE GUSTY NEAR THE STORMS. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES WEST OF THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE MORNING... SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HUMIDITY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....90-93. MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 2-5 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH AFTER 1400. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......13600-14600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). ISOLATED MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60. MAX HUMIDITY........40-47%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 7-13 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/ DOWNVALLEY 2-6 MPH AFTER 1000. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......13000 FT AGL...LOWERING TO 200-1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300...SOME STORMS DRY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87. MIN HUMIDITY........20-26%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 7-13 MPH...BECOMING EAST 4-9 MPH AFTER 1100. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 10800-11800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...BECOMING EXCELLENT AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS AROUND 80. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR MAGNOLIA. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/03-12 52 15 83 20 NW 10 10 3 3 NW32 12696 NW 24 269107 E 08/03-13 52 15 85 18 W 12 3 13969 NW 22 260313 E 08/03-14 52 15 87 16 W 14 3 15241 W 20 251519 E 08/03-15 63 15 88 15 W 15 24 3 3 W17 16513 W 17 242725 E 08/03-16 63 15 88 15 W 14 3 15358 NW 16 222991 E 08/03-17 63 15 87 17 W 13 3 14203 NW 16 203257 E 08/03-18 63 15 86 19 W 12 12 4 3 NW14 13047 NW 16 183523 E 08/03-19 63 15 81 23 W 12 3 9037 NW 16 127201 V 08/03-20 63 15 77 27 W 10 3 5026 W 16 70879 G 08/03-21 58 0 73 31 W 10 10 4 1 NW 6 1016 W 16 14557 P 08/03-22 58 0 70 35 W 9 1 743 W 14 10238 P 08/03-23 58 0 68 38 W 9 1 471 W 12 5918 P 08/04-00 23 0 66 41 W 8 8 4 1 W 5 198 W 9 1598 P 08/04-01 23 0 64 43 W 8 1 182 W 9 1429 P 08/04-02 23 0 62 45 W 8 1 167 W 8 1259 P 08/04-03 23 0 61 46 W 8 8 4 1 W 3 152 W 8 1089 P 08/04-04 23 0 60 47 W 8 1 151 W 8 1052 P 08/04-05 23 0 60 47 W 8 1 150 W 8 1015 P 08/04-06 27 0 60 46 W 8 8 5 1 W 7 149 W 8 978 P 08/04-07 27 0 62 46 W 8 1 879 W 8 5501 P 08/04-08 27 0 66 41 SW 6 1 1609 W 8 9823 P 08/04-09 27 5 71 37 SW 3 3 4 1 W16 2339 W 7 14145 P 08/04-10 27 5 75 34 W 3 1 5078 W 9 55753 F 08/04-11 27 5 78 33 W 5 1 7816 W 13 97361 G 08/04-12 62 5 80 32 W 5 5 4 1 W18 10555 W 15 138970 V 08/04-13 62 20 82 31 W 6 3 11172 W 16 155170 E 08/04-14 62 20 83 29 W 8 3 11790 W 16 171371 E 08/04-15 62 20 84 29 W 9 9 3 3 W21 12407 W 17 187572 E 08/04-16 62 20 84 28 W 10 3 11381 W 18 176678 E 08/04-17 62 20 83 28 W 12 3 10355 W 18 165784 E 08/04-18 62 20 82 29 W 13 13 3 3 W18 9329 W 20 154890 E 08/04-19 62 20 78 33 W 12 3 6365 W 17 105179 V 08/04-20 62 20 73 39 W 10 3 3402 W 16 55468 F 08/04-21 62 20 70 44 W 9 9 3 3 W17 439 W 15 5757 P 08/04-22 62 20 68 46 W 10 3 353 W 14 4462 P 08/04-23 62 0 66 46 W 10 1 267 W 13 3166 P 08/05-00 28 0 65 47 W 12 12 4 1 NW15 181 W 12 1870 P 08/05-01 28 0 62 50 W 12 1 172 W 13 1828 P 08/05-02 28 0 61 52 W 13 1 162 W 13 1785 P 08/05-03 28 0 60 53 W 13 13 4 1 W21 152 W 13 1743 P 08/05-04 28 0 59 53 W 13 1 141 W 14 1631 P 08/05-05 28 0 58 53 W 13 1 130 W 14 1520 P 08/05-06 28 0 59 51 W 13 13 4 1 W26 119 W 14 1409 P 08/05-07 28 0 60 52 W 10 1 975 W 14 11770 P 08/05-08 28 0 66 45 W 9 1 1832 W 14 22131 P 08/05-09 28 0 71 40 W 8 8 4 1 W31 2688 W 14 32492 P 08/05-10 28 0 76 35 W 8 1 5372 W 15 71382 G 08/05-11 28 0 79 32 NW 7 1 8055 W 15 110272 V 08/05-12 62 20 81 29 NW 6 6 3 3 W26 10739 W 16 149163 V 08/05-13 62 20 83 27 NW 7 3 11455 W 14 137145 V 08/05-14 62 20 84 26 N 6 3 12171 W 12 125127 V 08/05-15 62 20 85 25 N 6 6 3 3 W13 12887 W 10 113109 V 08/05-16 62 20 86 25 NE 7 3 12205 W 9 100939 V 08/05-17 62 20 85 26 E 7 3 11523 W 9 88769 G 08/05-18 62 20 84 28 E 7 7 3 3 W20 10841 W 8 76599 G 08/05-19 62 20 82 30 SE 5 3 8342 SW 8 58644 F 08/05-20 62 20 78 34 SE 3 3 5842 S 8 40690 F 08/05-21 62 20 74 39 S 2 2 3 3 W20 3343 S 8 22735 P 08/05-22 62 20 72 40 SW 2 3 2453 S 8 16781 P 08/05-23 62 0 70 41 SW 2 1 1563 S 8 10826 P 08/06-00 34 0 68 43 W 2 2 3 1 SW21 673 S 8 4872 P 08/06-01 34 0 65 47 W 3 1 536 S 8 3698 P 08/06-02 34 0 63 49 W 3 1 398 SW 7 2523 P 08/06-03 34 0 62 50 W 5 5 3 1 W21 260 SW 6 1349 P 08/06-04 34 0 61 50 W 6 1 245 SW 7 1416 P 08/06-05 34 0 61 50 W 7 1 231 W 8 1482 P 08/06-06 34 0 61 49 W 8 8 3 1 SW15 216 W 8 1549 P 08/06-07 34 0 63 50 W 7 1 08/06-08 34 0 66 49 SW 7 1 08/06-09 34 0 70 46 SW 6 6 1 08/06-10 34 0 73 42 SW 6 1 08/06-11 34 0 75 38 SW 5 1 08/06-12 34 0 77 36 S 5 5 1 08/06-13 34 0 78 35 S 5 1 08/06-14 57 20 79 33 S 5 3 08/06-15 57 20 80 33 S 5 5 3 08/06-16 57 20 80 32 S 6 3 08/06-17 57 20 80 33 S 6 3 08/06-18 57 20 79 34 S 6 6 3 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...GARY BATCHELDER REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090803.MAGNO.04/BOU