FNUS75 KGJT 040404
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DRY CREEK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1004 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2128 MDT ON AUGUST 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY NOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MIDNIGHT FOR LOW RH GUSTY WINDS HIGH HAINES DRY FUELS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING...

.DISCUSSION...THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NEW MEXICO TO OREGON. THERE IS SOME MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON VIRGA AND LOCAL
OUTFLOW WINDS...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...LIGHTER GRADIENT WINDS ARE
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE. THEN SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINES WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

*NOTE: ALL OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE FIRE SITE WERE SIGNIFICANTLY
 DRIER THAN OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED. THEREFORE...BASED FORECAST ON
 DRIER INPUT FROM ADJACENT AREAS.

.TODAY (THROUGH SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-16%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 2 TO 4 MPH THROUGH 0800...BECOMING
    UPSLOPE 4 TO 8 MPH BY 1100. OCCASIONAL WEST
    WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER
    2000. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 5 MPH THROUGH 0800...THEN BECOMING
    WEST 15 MPH BY 1100.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........48-53%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 2 TO 4 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2100.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 5 MPH.

.OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-94 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH BECOMING UPSLOPE
    4 TO 8 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20
    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....BECOMING WEST 5 MPH BY 1200.

$$

FORECASTER...NORV LARSON
REQUESTED BY...JEFF DAVIDS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090803.DRYCR.01/GJT