FNUS72 KMHX 031424 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR CAROLINA BAY...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1024 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0939 EDT ON AUGUST 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL APPROACH THE AREA BUT WILL STALL WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK A WEAK FRONT MAY FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME CALM. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. ANY SMOKE FROM THE FIRE COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THE FOG AND LEAD TO NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT VICINITY OF THE FIRE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........99 94 89 85 75 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............79 84 85 85 84 RH..............87 72 72 70 72 20 FT WIND......W 5 W 5 SW 4 S 6 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSLY CLEAR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH LATE. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........70 62 55 45 38 37 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE PATCHY PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE FOG FOG TEMP............83 79 77 75 74 74 RH..............72 82 85 90 93 93 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 SW 4 SW 2 SW 2 W 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 5 5 5 3 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........35 34 38 43 47 44 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....FOG TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............73 76 82 88 90 90 RH..............100 90 74 59 56 58 20 FT WIND......W 2 NW 2 W 2 SW 3 S 4 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...DAVID NELSON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090803.CAROL.01/MHX