FNAK79 PAFG 051452
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK  458
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
652 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2145 AKDT ON AUGUST 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
BUILD WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FIRE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER
WEST WINDS TONIGHT THAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST WHERE THE THERMAL
TROUGH IS POSITIONED. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DRIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE WIND TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83...78 AT THE TOP ELEVATION.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH BECOMING VARIABLE IN
                    DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL. LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 1000 FT AGL
                    THROUGH 1000.
MIXING WINDS........LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49 AT THE BOTTOM ELEVATION AND 57 AT THE
                    TOP ELEVATION.
MAX HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT AT THE TOP ELEVATION AND 60 PERCENT AT
                    THE BOTTOM ELEVATION.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE IN DIRECTION 2 TO 5 MPH BECOMING WEST
                    WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 2000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........BECOMING NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING INTO
                    THE NORTHEAST 8 TO 14 MPH IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 20 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...LITTLE
REQUESTED BY...JAKE LIVINGSTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090804.BIGCR.02/AFG