FNUS75 KGJT 041612
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK LAKE...MOAB FIRE DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1012 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0934 MDT ON AUGUST 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BURN SITE PRODUCING A
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED TO THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT A LOCAL BUILDUP
COULD PRODUCE VIRGA AND OUTFLOW WINDS. THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
WILL BEGIN TO SET UP JUST BEFORE SUNSET WITH POOR RH RECOVERY.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY...FOR SOME INCREASED
POTENTIAL OF DRY LATE-DAY STORMS. CRITICAL FIRE DAYS ARE THURSDAY
(INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS) AND FRIDAY (STRONG WINDS AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE).

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED AFTERNOON
                    BUILDUPS WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-86 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH BY 1300 WITH
                    AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
                    GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR AFTERNOON VIRGA.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1100...BECOMING EXCELLENT BY 1300.
CLEARING INDEX......1000+ BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 10000 BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST-SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........29-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE FAVORING NORTHWEST 1-4 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......LESS THAN 500.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 1-5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AFTER 1200 SOUTHWEST 3-6
                    MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARING INDEX......LESS THAN 500 UNTIL 1000...THEN RISING TO 1000+
                    BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200 THEN 2. LAL OF 4 AFTER 1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900 INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL
                    BY 1400. HIGHER NEAR STORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...DUCK LAKE IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090804.DUCKL.01/GJT