FNAK79 PAFG 070055
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDLUCK CREEK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
455 PM AKDT THU AUG 6 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1530 AKDT ON AUGUST 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
REAL CHANGE IS COMING IN SPITE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER BLAND
CHANGE IN CIRCULATION. FOR TONIGHT (THURSDAY NIGHT), THE PERSISTENT
REMAINS OF A WEATHER FRONT ARE STRETCHED FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
FIRE. THIS IS A RELIABLE PATTERN FOR MORE RAIN, THOUGH THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN WILL BE LESS THAN IT WAS TODAY (THURSDAY.)

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE WIND
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FIRE WILL CHANGE FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
ON FRIDAY AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE GOOD NEWS FROM THIS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT ONLY A LITTLE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FURTHER, ON SUNDAY, THE 20 FOOT WINDS
OVER THE FIRE WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THIS WAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAYBE LONGER. ALSO, THESE NORTH WINDS
ARE A PATTERN FOR NO RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND BEYOND. AND FINALLY,
ON THE GOOD SIDE, THESE WINDS WON'T BE STRONG.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SMOKE. SOME SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST AROUND 7 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SMOKE. SLIGHT
                     CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100-5900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH AROUND 8 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SMOKE THROUGH
                    THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300-6900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 8 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. SMOKE. LOWS 45-47. HIGHS 66-68. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. SMOKE. LOWS 44 TO 46. HIGHS 65-68.
NORTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 42 TO 45. HIGHS NEAR 62.
NORTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...FATHAUER
REQUESTED BY...GALEN ROESLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090805.HARDL.09/AFG