FNUS73 KAPX 062307
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR JIMNY...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
707 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON AUGUST 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE...OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...WILL
DRIFT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...AND JUST TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WELL AHEAD OF A SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE
FROM LAKE HURON SHOULD REACH THE FIRE SITE...NEAR IGNITION
TIME TO PERHAPS 1-2 HOURS AFTERWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...LASTING UNTIL MID EVENING.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51.
RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........24     17     17     15     9      9
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............73     68     62     58     56     53
RH..............49     57     75     83     80     86
20 FT WIND......NW 7   NW 7   N 4    N 2    N 2    N 0
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     10     5      5
SMOKE DISP......1300   900    200    0      100    0

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........71 AT IGNITION...MAX 71.
RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
                    5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 2 TO
                    9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3600-4800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........19     36     36     36     62     62
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............51     54     64     70     71     71
RH..............86     77     63     53     49     55
20 FT WIND......N 0    N 2    E 3    E 5    SE 6   SE 6
20 FT WIND GUST.       5      5      10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....5      3      3      3      3      3
SMOKE DISP......0      0      100    100    400    500

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI
REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090807.JIMNY.01/APX