FNUS75 KBOU 100104 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR JELLYROLL GULCH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 705 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...FAIRLY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOMES WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS...SO THE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MAX HUMIDITY........60-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 7-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 5-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200-400 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70. MIN HUMIDITY........25-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 8800-9800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MAX HUMIDITY........60-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 6-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-7400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 200-400 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75. MIN HUMIDITY........30-40%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 7-8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTHWEST UP TO 4 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 6-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 10800-11800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. GOOD AFTER 0900. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR JELLYROLL GULCH. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/09-18 51 20 65 23 N 7 7 4 3 SW15 5428 W 5 24189 P 08/09-19 51 20 63 25 N 6 3 3747 NW 6 16773 P 08/09-20 51 20 60 30 N 5 3 2067 NW 6 9358 P 08/09-21 51 20 57 36 N 5 5 3 3 SW17 387 N 6 1942 P 08/09-22 51 20 56 41 NW 5 3 391 NW 6 1985 P 08/09-23 51 20 54 47 W 6 3 394 NW 6 2029 P 08/10-00 52 0 52 54 W 6 6 3 1 S21 398 NW 6 2072 P 08/10-01 52 0 49 60 W 7 1 340 NW 7 1898 P 08/10-02 52 0 48 64 W 7 1 281 W 7 1723 P 08/10-03 52 0 47 65 W 8 8 3 1 SW23 223 W 8 1549 P 08/10-04 52 0 46 65 W 9 1 227 W 9 1775 P 08/10-05 52 0 46 64 W 10 1 231 W 10 2002 P 08/10-06 40 0 46 62 W 12 12 2 1 W25 235 W 10 2228 P 08/10-07 40 0 47 59 W 9 1 431 W 9 3065 P 08/10-08 40 0 52 48 W 7 1 627 NW 8 3901 P 08/10-09 40 0 56 41 NW 5 5 2 1 W23 822 NW 7 4737 P 08/10-10 40 0 60 35 NW 3 1 3466 NW 7 25557 P 08/10-11 40 0 62 32 N 3 1 6110 W 8 46378 F 08/10-12 65 10 64 30 N 3 3 3 2 W22 8754 W 9 67198 G 08/10-13 65 10 66 29 N 3 2 9306 W 9 70483 G 08/10-14 65 10 67 29 N 5 2 9857 W 8 73768 G 08/10-15 65 10 67 29 N 3 3 3 2 W21 10408 W 8 77054 G 08/10-16 65 10 68 31 NE 3 2 9389 W 7 58904 F 08/10-17 65 10 67 33 E 3 2 8371 W 6 40755 F 08/10-18 40 10 66 36 CALM 1 3 2 W18 7352 W 3 22605 P 08/10-19 40 10 64 38 CALM 2 6984 W 12 75119 G 08/10-20 40 10 62 41 W 2 2 5672 NW 9 50683 F 08/10-21 40 10 59 46 NW 2 2 2 2 SW29 4359 NW 7 26248 P 08/10-22 40 10 57 49 NW 3 2 3067 W 6 17894 P 08/10-23 40 10 55 53 W 3 2 1774 W 5 9541 P 08/11-00 12 0 53 58 W 5 5 2 1 W26 482 W 2 1187 P 08/11-01 12 0 51 62 W 6 1 400 W 5 1239 P 08/11-02 12 0 49 63 W 6 1 319 W 6 1291 P 08/11-03 12 0 49 63 W 7 7 2 1 W23 238 W 7 1342 P 08/11-04 12 0 48 61 W 7 1 233 W 7 1404 P 08/11-05 12 0 48 59 W 8 1 229 W 7 1466 P 08/11-06 0 0 48 57 W 8 8 2 1 W21 225 W 8 1528 P 08/11-07 0 0 49 58 W 6 1 1934 W 9 18906 P 08/11-08 0 0 54 51 W 3 1 3644 W 10 36284 P 08/11-09 0 0 59 46 W 2 2 2 1 W14 5354 NW 12 53661 F 08/11-10 0 0 63 40 NW 2 1 6855 W 9 53329 F 08/11-11 0 0 66 36 N 2 1 8356 W 8 52996 F 08/11-12 58 10 68 34 E 3 3 2 2 W16 9857 W 6 52664 F 08/11-13 58 10 70 32 E 5 2 10586 W 6 55026 F 08/11-14 58 10 71 32 E 7 2 11315 W 6 57388 F 08/11-15 58 10 72 31 E 8 8 2 2 W17 12044 SW 6 59750 F 08/11-16 58 10 72 32 E 6 2 11711 W 6 60644 G 08/11-17 58 10 72 33 SE 5 2 11379 W 6 61537 G 08/11-18 71 23 71 35 S 2 2 2 3 W17 11047 W 7 62430 G 08/11-19 71 23 68 37 S 2 3 9064 W 6 49355 F 08/11-20 71 23 65 41 SW 3 3 7082 W 6 36280 P 08/11-21 71 23 62 44 W 5 5 2 3 W25 5099 W 6 23205 P 08/11-22 71 23 60 47 W 6 3 3512 W 6 16090 P 08/11-23 71 23 58 50 W 6 3 1925 W 6 8974 P 08/12-00 2 0 56 54 W 7 7 2 1 W23 338 W 6 1858 P 08/12-01 2 0 53 58 W 7 1 291 W 7 1769 P 08/12-02 2 0 51 59 W 8 1 244 W 8 1680 P 08/12-03 2 0 50 59 W 9 9 2 1 W18 197 W 9 1591 P 08/12-04 2 0 50 57 W 9 1 193 W 9 1593 P 08/12-05 2 0 49 55 W 9 1 189 W 9 1595 P 08/12-06 3 0 50 53 W 10 10 2 1 NW18 185 W 10 1597 P 08/12-07 3 0 51 53 W 9 1 1492 W 13 21579 P 08/12-08 3 0 56 45 W 8 1 2799 W 15 41560 F 08/12-09 3 0 61 39 W 7 7 3 1 NW10 4105 NW 17 61542 G 08/12-10 3 0 65 33 W 7 1 6108 NW 16 80463 G 08/12-11 3 0 68 29 NW 8 1 8111 NW 15 99384 G 08/12-12 52 10 70 26 NW 9 9 2 2 W10 10114 NW 14 118305 V 08/12-13 52 10 72 24 NW 8 2 10916 W 14 131777 V 08/12-14 52 10 73 24 NW 8 2 11719 W 14 145249 V 08/12-15 52 10 74 24 NW 7 7 3 2 W17 12522 W 15 158721 E 08/12-16 52 10 75 24 NW 7 2 12313 W 14 153856 E 08/12-17 52 10 74 25 NW 7 2 12104 W 14 148991 V 08/12-18 37 12 73 27 NW 7 7 3 2 W15 11896 NW 14 144126 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090809.JELLY.01/BOU