FNUS74 KEPZ 091544
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR PINE TREE RX...LNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
944 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0910 MDT ON AUGUST 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS...

...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH VIRGA SHAFTS AND NEAR
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD BUILD-UPS...


.DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH LAYING NEAR/JUST WEST OF BURN SITE...MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MID-DAY OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SUFFICIENT AND HEATING
AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GET THE CONVECTION GOING...AND THE TROUGH IS ALL
THAT MAY BE NEEDED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO REFORM/REBUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND MONDAY.
THE HIGH SHOULD QUICKLY CENTER ITSELF OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE
STORM CHANCES MONDAY...HOWEVER ANY SEEPAGE OF ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ALL THAT MAY BE NEEDED TO TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.  SURFACE
DEWPOINT TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 50 MPH
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAPID RUNOFF WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MID DAY...THEN CHANCE
                    FOR STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    8 TO 13 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    TO 18 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-59.
MAX HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LOCAL DRAINAGES DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE
                    NORTHWEST 1 TO 4 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
                    A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    TO 14 MPH.


$$
FORECASTER...TRIPOLI
REQUESTED BY...NMADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090809.PINET.01/EPZ