FNUS73 KAPX 121433 CCA FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR JIMNY SOUTH...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1033 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON AUGUST 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. THEREFORE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH NO RAIN. THE SOUTHERN ASPECT WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURE TO WARM QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PENETRATE WELL INLAND. THE EXACT TIME OF THE LAKE BREEZE PASSING THROUGH THE BURN SITE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE SITE BY IGNITION TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OCCURRING PRIOR TO IGNITION...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE BURN. A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 14 TO 19 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE CRITICALLY DRY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE BURN COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 81. RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 7 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300-5800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(400). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........15 0 0 41 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE NONE NONE TEMP............58 65 76 80 RH..............86 78 56 47 20 FT WIND......N 3G5 NW 5G9 NE5G10 E 6G15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 5 SMOKE DISP......0 100 300 400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 58. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM SKY (%).........35 10 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............78 71 65 62 RH..............50 66 75 81 20 FT WIND......SE 7G15 SE 3 NW 2 NW 2 SMOKE DISP......200 0 0 0 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........78 AT IGNITION...MAX 82. RH..................41 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 7 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3200-4800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (300). TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 22 22 22 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............58 61 64 65 70 75 80 78 77 76 75 75 RH..............99 84 81 76 63 52 45 41 39 38 39 39 20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW SW SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..0 3 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 12 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 200 200 300 300 $$ FORECASTER...ANDY SULLIVAN/JEFF HALBLAUB REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090813.JIMNY.01/APX