FNUS73 KAPX 131641 CCA FWSAPX CORRECTED SPOT FORECAST FOR JIMNY SOUTH...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 910 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON AUGUST 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT THROUGH LAKE HURON INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THIS LAKE BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND AND CROSS THE BURN AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ...BUT THE EXACT TIME IS UNCERTAIN. IF WINDS ARE NOT FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT IGNITION TIME...CREWS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR A WIND SHIFT. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........81 AT IGNITION...MAX 84. RH..................47 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 3 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4900-5300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR (100). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........25 35 35 35 35 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............81 83 82 83 82 RH..............47 43 41 43 44 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 7 8 7 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 11 12 12 11 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 100 100 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 58. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........35 22 22 22 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............77 74 66 61 59 57 RH..............49 58 76 87 90 97 20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 4 S 2 NW 1 NW 1 NW 1 20 FT WIND GUST.10 8 SMOKE DISP......300 300 100 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 85. RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800-6600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(900). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........0 5 5 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............58 68 79 85 RH..............100 78 58 46 20 FT WIND......S 1 SW 4G10 S 7G15 S 7G15 HAINES INDEX....4 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 100 700 900 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF HALBLAUB/JIM KEYSOR REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090813.JIMNY.03/APX