FNUS74 KEPZ 131647
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR TURKEY PEN RX...NMMEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1047 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON AUGUST 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION.
A WINDOW FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHAPING UP
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO TAP MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS SHOULD SEE
AND INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.



.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73 TO 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 KNOTS.
VENT CATEGORY.......GOOD (64000 KNOT-FT).


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 3 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST  5 TO 10 MPH.

MIXING HEIGHT.......8250 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS.
VENT CATEGORY.......FAIR TO GOOD (58900 KNOT-FT).


$$
FORECASTER...NOVLAN
REQUESTED BY...NMADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090813.TURKE.02/EPZ