FNUS75 KGJT 132312 FWSGJT SPOT FORECAST FOR NARRAGUINNEP...FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 512 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1643 MDT ON AUGUST 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MOISTURE PLUME MOVED OVERHEAD TODAY...AND THE CLOUDS RESULTED IN LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SHOULD BRING SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. BETTER SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY IS A CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 MDT SATURDAY. THIS FRONT COULD REACH THE BURN AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100%) UNTIL 2300...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F. MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 12 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTH 5 MPH OVER RIDGETOPS...OTHERWISE DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2100...THEN BECOMING POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. LAL.................4. MIXING HEIGHT.......8700 FT AGL UNTIL 2100....THEN DECREASING TO 1000-1600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN BECOMING DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84 F. MIN HUMIDITY........22-27%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING SOUTH WINDS 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR INCREASING TO GOOD BY 1400. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. LAL.................4. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) BY 2200. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56 F. MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5-8 MPH GUSTING TO 12 MPH UNTIL 2100... THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH EXPECT SOUTH 5-7 MPH OVER RIDGETOPS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. LAL.................4. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-1700 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 MPH BECOMING DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (4-50%) UNTIL 1300 THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F. MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY 1300. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AFTER 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. LAL.................4. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH BY 1200...INCREASING TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .EXTENDED FORECAST... .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 44-54. HIGHS 68-78. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 39-49. HIGHS 71-81. WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 41-51. HIGHS 73-83. WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 43-53. HIGHS 75-85. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 44-54. HIGHS 76-86. $$ FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS REQUESTED BY...KENT GRANT TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090813.NARRA.01/GJT