FNUS75 KGJT 140426
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR NARRAGUINNEP...FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1026 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2027 MDT ON AUGUST 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF A BIT
OF CLEARING OCCURS ROUND MIDDAY AND LEADS TO MORE SURFACE HEATING.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS A COLD MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 MDT. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE BURN
AREA AROUND BETWEEN AROUND 2100 MDT SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...ANTICIPATE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NOW. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80% UNTIL 1100...THEN 60-70%).
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTH WINDS 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WIND EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR INCREASING TO GOOD
                    BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-700%) UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) BY 2200. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5-8 MPH GUSTING TO 12 MPH UNTIL 2000...
                    THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH EXPECT SOUTH
                    5-7 MPH OVER RIDGETOPS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR AFTER 2100.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 MPH BECOMING DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) UNTIL 1300...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) BY 1600. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SOUTHEAST
                    5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY 1300.
                    GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AFTER 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH BY 1200...INCREASING TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS 44-54. HIGHS 68-78. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 39-49. HIGHS 71-81. WINDS LESS THAN
15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 41-51. HIGHS 73-83. WINDS LESS THAN
15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 43-53. HIGHS 75-85.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS 44-54. HIGHS 76-86.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...KENT GRANT
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090813.NARRA.07/GJT