FNUS73 KAPX 141315 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUEBEES BLOCK 12...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 915 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 EDT ON AUGUST 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WATCHING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL PASS NORTH OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA...HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIVING THIS PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN YOUR VICINITY AFTER 3 PM. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S... WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING IN THE 14-18MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AFTER 3 PM. TEMPERATURE.........83 AT IGNITION...MAX 86. RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS 14 TO 18 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5400-5600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (700). TIME (EDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........56 62 71 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............81 85 86 RH..............51 43 40 20 FT WIND......SW 8 SW 9 SW 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......600 400 400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 62. RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 16 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........71 73 73 73 54 54 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............84 78 75 71 67 64 RH..............44 56 62 71 81 87 20 FT WIND......SW 8 S 7 S 5 S 3 S 3 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 10 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......500 600 100 0 0 0 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 87. RH..................MIN 42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........54 63 63 63 77 77 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............64 68 75 80 85 87 RH..............87 78 64 54 45 42 20 FT WIND......S 3 SW 3 W 4 W 5 SW 4 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...JOHN BORIS REQUESTED BY...PAUL LYDEN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090814.BLUEB.03/APX