FNUS73 KAPX 141623 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE BEES 12...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1223 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 EDT ON AUGUST 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...REFERENCED IN THE EARLIER SPOT FORECAST...CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST- NORTHEAST. THE LEADING EDGE IS DISSIPATING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING FROM INTERSTATE 75 WESTWARD THROUGH CADILLAC AND TRAVERSE CITY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AND MOVE THROUGH THE BURN SITE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS COMPLICATES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST AND COULD GUST INTO THE 14-18 MPH RANGE. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AFTER 3PM. TEMPERATURE.........83 AT IGNITION...MAX 86. RH..................46 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5400-5600 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (700). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........59 72 72 72 75 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW TEMP............83 84 84 84 83 RH..............48 47 47 46 48 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.11 13 14 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......600 500 400 400 400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 62. RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 16 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........71 73 73 73 54 54 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............81 78 71 67 65 64 RH..............48 55 70 80 86 87 20 FT WIND......SW 8 S 7 S 5 S 3 S 3 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 10 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......500 600 100 0 0 0 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 87. RH..................MIN 42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900-5400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(300). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........54 63 63 77 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE RNSHWR TEMP............63 71 80 86 RH..............89 73 54 43 20 FT WIND......S 3G5 SW 4G10 W 5G10 SW 5G10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 100 300 200 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF HALBLAUB/JOHN BORIS REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090814.BLUEB.04/APX