FNUS73 KAPX 142149 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE BEES 12...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 549 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1750 EDT ON AUGUST 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER WARM...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THE FIRE SITE. FOR SUNDAY...THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION- FREE. THE FIRE SITE WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM (HIGH OF 89) AND ABOUT AS HUMID (MIN RH 40-45 PERCENT) AS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 MPH. .TONIGHT... TEMPERATURE.........MIN 63. RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-600 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MIN...POOR (0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM TEMP............83 78 73 69 66 65 RH..............43 52 64 76 81 84 20 FT WIND......SW 7 S 6 S 6 S 5 S 5 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......700 500 200 0 0 0 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........86 AT IGNITION...MAX 88. RH..................43 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 MPH AT IGNITION...GUSTS 12 TO 16 MPH. OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...AND 13 TO 18 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4400-4500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (800). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM TEMP............64 66 76 83 86 86 RH..............87 84 58 46 42 43 20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 4 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 400 800 600 600 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .MONDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI REQUESTED BY...ERIC O NEIL FEMO-T TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090814.BLUEB.05/APX