FNUS73 KMQT 140945 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSH CREEK NORTH INTERIOR...USFWS SENEY NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 540 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON AUGUST 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS UPON US FOR THE TODAY AND TONIGHT PERIOD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RESULT SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...IT IF FIGURED THAT MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MARSH CREEK NORTH INTERIOR BURN. STILL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TOP OUT AROUND 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD FRONT CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE..WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE OFF AND ON WET WEATHER FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON... THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80. MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 27 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (486). LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1500-3000 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.09 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%)..........31 33 38 44 49 54 57 57 58 59 60 61 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP.............66 69 72 75 77 78 78 78 77 75 75 74 RH...............82 76 70 66 61 60 62 63 67 70 71 72 GENERAL WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S GENERAL WIND SPD..7 7 7 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 GENERAL WIND GST. 10 12 15 15 18 20 20 20 20 20 VINDX KT-FT/100..94 163 240 305 378 434 486 482 436 376 308 249 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.5 HAINES INDEX......3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 34 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 23 TO 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (62). LAL.................2 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1200 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.09 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%)..........62 62 61 61 60 59 59 58 57 55 54 53 WEATHER COV......SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP.............74 71 68 66 66 67 68 68 68 67 66 66 RH...............74 81 89 95 94 89 85 86 88 90 94 96 GENERAL WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S GENERAL WIND SPD..8 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 GENERAL WIND GST.15 15 13 10 11 VINDX KT-FT/100.206 160 112 63 62 92 124 136 137 129 96 62 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 33 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MORNING. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (341). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........52 52 52 52 45 35 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............67 75 82 83 82 80 RH..............95 71 58 54 53 56 GENERAL WIND....S 7 S 7 S 8 S 9 S 9 S 8 GENERAL GUST....15 15 15 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.60 154 214 255 341 264 MIX HGT (FT)....300 900 1500 2000 2100 1600 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...KF REQUESTED BY...GARY LINDSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090814.MARSH.01/MQT