FNUS73 KAPX 142228
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR JIMNY SOUTH...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
628 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON AUGUST 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY
BREEZES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER WARM...AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THE FIRE SITE. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 62.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........20     26     26     14     22     22
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............83     79     74     69     67     65
RH..............46     52     64     76     81     87
20 FT WIND......S 7    S 6    S 6    S 5    S 4    SW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     10     10     10     10
SMOKE DISP......700    500    100    0      0      0

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........82 AT IGNITION...MAX 85.
RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
                    5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4100-4200 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (700).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........32     36     36     36     46     46
WEATHER COV.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............64     65     74     80     84     84
RH..............87     87     66     54     49     51
20 FT WIND......SW 3   SW 4   SW 4   SW 6   SW 7   S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4
SMOKE DISP......0      0      400    700    600    600

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI
REQUESTED BY...JOE  ALYEA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090815.JIMNY.01/APX