FNUS75 KRIW 151505
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PORCUPINE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
905 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0836 MDT ON AUGUST 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A PLUME OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
THE FIRE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED BEHIND
THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEAKER. SATELLITE
DEMONSTRATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING SKIES OVER THE FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE PERIODS OF CLEARING SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEAR TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED OVER THE FIRE
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS. INCREASED
WESTERLY WIND OF AROUND 15 MPH WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). LIKELY RAIN THROUGH 1100
                    THEN CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. PERIODS
                    OF CLEARING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-53 BELOW 8500 FT...45-49 ABOVE 8500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-38 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH BY 1300. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH INCREASING
                    TO 20 MPH AFTER 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.35 PERCENT THROUGH 1100...THEN 15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING 2800 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 16
                    TO 22 MPH BY 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (23200-44200 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH 2300...THEN ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-36 BELOW 8500 FT...29-32 ABOVE 8500 FT.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-90 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH AND GUSTY THROUGH 2200
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AND
                    DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY 0200.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1800 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 17 MPH BECOMING 8 TO 12 MPH BY
                    0200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20900-33800 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS BY 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57 BELOW 8500 FT...49-52 ABOVE 8500 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST BY 1300.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7800 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (28700-50500 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND
60. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...CODY MCFARLAND
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090815.PORCU.01/RIW