FNUS73 KAPX 152104 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE BEES 12...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 504 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON AUGUST 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID SOUTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH SUNDAY. THAT BREEZE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS BY LATE MORNING. AT THE FIRE SITE...THOSE GUSTS WILL REACH 25 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. FOR MONDAY...AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND MUGGY AIR IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...AND COULD HAPPEN AT ANY TIME OF DAY. RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER (HIGH OF 82) AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGHER (MIN RH 63 PERCENT). SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 62. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1100 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........60 45 45 45 38 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............84 80 75 71 68 67 RH..............51 60 69 76 81 84 20 FT WIND......SW 7 S 5 S 4 S 4 S 4 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......700 500 200 0 0 0 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........83 AT IGNITION...MAX 89. RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 22 TO 28 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4700-4900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1400). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........38 31 31 31 44 44 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............64 65 76 83 87 87 RH..............93 93 64 51 45 45 20 FT WIND......S 6 S 6 S 8 S 11 SW 12 SW 12 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 20 25 25 25 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 100 700 1200 1100 1300 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090816.BLUEB.01/APX