FNUS74 KEPZ 161515
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NOGAL RX...GNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
915 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0845 MDT ON AUGUST 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS...

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH...WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE BURN SITE.
HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST MONDAY.  THIS BEHAVIOR AND REDUCTION
OF STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ROCKIES...WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO CIRCULATE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER MONDAY.  AS A RESULT LOOK FOR SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BURN SITE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED...WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT IN THE MORNING....INCREASING AND BECOMING WEST
                    WEST 6 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
MAX HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LOCAL DRAINAGES DEVELOPING AFTER SUNDOWN...OTHERWISE
                    NORTHWEST 2 TO 5 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON
                    WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT IN THE MORNING....INCREASING AND BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5 TO 9 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 13 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...TRIPOLI
REQUESTED BY...NMADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090816.NOGAL.01/EPZ