FNUS73 KMQT 161044 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSH CREEK NORTH INTERIOR...SENEY NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 644 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0650 EDT ON AUGUST 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE BURN AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON TODAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THEN DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 37 MPH INCREASING TO 29 TO 46 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (586) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (703) LATE. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.21 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%)...........46 50 57 63 69 76 79 80 82 84 86 88 WEATHER COV....... ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE...... RNSHWR TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP..............69 72 74 76 76 75 75 74 74 73 72 70 RH................80 75 71 69 69 72 75 76 78 81 86 92 GENERAL WIND DIR...S S S S S S S S S S S S GENERAL WIND SPD...5 7 8 11 11 11 12 12 12 10 10 10 GENERAL WIND GST.. 11 15 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 20 20 VINDX KT-FT/100...93 155 235 307 362 424 480 586 682 703 562 377 MIX HGT (KFT)....0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.1 HAINES INDEX.......3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64. MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 41 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 18 TO 31 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (6). LAL.................3. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-700 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.13 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........89 87 85 84 79 71 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............68 68 68 67 66 65 RH..............97 97 95 94 95 96 GENERAL WIND....S 10 S 10 S 8 SW 7 SW 7 SW 6 GENERAL GUST....20 20 15 12 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.205 118 88 64 57 21 MIX HGT (FT)....700 400 400 300 200 100 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 4 TO 9 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3 TO 11 MPH BY LATE MORNING. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (333). LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 3300-5000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........66 58 48 40 43 47 WEATHER COV.....S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............65 70 75 78 78 76 RH..............92 79 67 60 60 63 GENERAL WIND....W 6 W 6 W 6 W 6 W 6 SW 5 GENERAL GUST.... 11 12 VINDX KT-FT/100.45 201 227 333 241 132 MIX HGT (FT)....300 2000 3800 4800 4800 3300 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 5 4 $$ FORECASTER...KF REQUESTED BY...KF GL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090816.MARSH.01/MQT