FNUS75 KBOU 172355 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BUFFALO MTN COMMAND...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 542 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSES TO THE EAST. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG ON TUESDAY BUT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY WILL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. MIN TEMPERATURE.....34. MAX HUMIDITY........67%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN NORTHEAST 5-6 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTH 5-9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200-1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64. MIN HUMIDITY........24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN WEST/NORTHWEST 7-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 11800-12800 FT AGL AFTER 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 2400...THEN CLEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. MIN TEMPERATURE.....35. MAX HUMIDITY........60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 400-1400 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64. MIN HUMIDITY........20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 8-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 6800-7800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BUFFALO MTN COMMAND. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/17-17 65 3 61 21 W 12 1 11213 W 20 195658 E 08/17-18 65 16 60 23 W 10 10 3 3 SW32 11110 W 18 177419 E 08/17-19 65 16 57 26 NW 7 3 8259 W 14 122504 V 08/17-20 65 16 54 31 NW 5 3 5408 W 10 67589 G 08/17-21 59 2 50 37 N 2 2 3 1 SW38 2557 NW 6 12675 P 08/17-22 59 2 48 41 NE 3 1 1809 W 6 9123 P 08/17-23 59 2 46 45 E 5 1 1061 S 7 5571 P 08/18-00 51 0 43 52 SE 7 7 3 1 W39 313 S 7 2020 P 08/18-01 51 0 40 58 SE 7 1 292 S 7 1783 P 08/18-02 51 0 38 63 S 7 1 271 S 7 1546 P 08/18-03 34 0 37 64 S 7 7 3 1 SW33 250 S 6 1310 P 08/18-04 34 0 36 65 S 7 1 232 S 6 1174 P 08/18-05 34 0 36 66 S 7 1 215 S 6 1039 P 08/18-06 52 0 36 66 S 7 7 3 1 W38 197 S 6 904 P 08/18-07 52 0 37 67 S 6 1 921 SW 6 5365 P 08/18-08 52 0 43 58 W 6 1 1645 W 7 9827 P 08/18-09 62 23 48 49 NW 5 5 3 3 W26 2370 NW 7 14288 P 08/18-10 62 23 53 41 NW 5 3 4865 W 9 48877 F 08/18-11 62 23 56 35 N 5 3 7360 W 12 83466 G 08/18-12 43 4 58 31 N 3 3 3 1 W33 9855 SW 14 118054 V 08/18-13 43 4 61 28 NW 6 1 11010 SW 16 163849 E 08/18-14 43 4 62 26 W 8 1 12165 W 20 209644 E 08/18-15 47 0 63 25 W 10 10 3 1 W31 13320 W 22 255439 E 08/18-16 47 0 63 24 W 10 1 12855 W 23 253828 E 08/18-17 47 0 63 24 W 9 1 12390 W 23 252216 E 08/18-18 39 10 61 24 W 10 10 3 2 W41 11925 W 24 250605 E 08/18-19 39 10 58 28 W 10 2 9118 W 21 181802 E 08/18-20 39 10 55 33 W 9 2 6311 W 17 112999 V 08/18-21 39 10 52 38 W 9 9 2 2 W37 3504 W 15 44196 F 08/18-22 39 0 50 40 W 9 1 2445 W 13 30193 P 08/18-23 39 0 47 44 W 8 1 1387 W 10 16190 P 08/19-00 8 0 44 48 W 8 8 2 1 W37 328 W 8 2186 P 08/19-01 8 0 41 54 W 8 1 276 W 8 1914 P 08/19-02 8 0 39 58 W 8 1 224 W 9 1641 P 08/19-03 8 0 38 59 W 8 8 2 1 W39 172 W 9 1369 P 08/19-04 8 0 37 60 W 7 1 177 W 9 1393 P 08/19-05 8 0 37 60 W 7 1 182 W 9 1417 P 08/19-06 7 0 37 58 W 7 7 2 1 W37 186 W 9 1442 P 08/19-07 7 0 38 54 W 6 1 1239 W 12 16230 P 08/19-08 7 0 43 43 W 6 1 2292 W 14 31018 P 08/19-09 7 0 49 34 W 6 6 2 1 NW33 3345 W 16 45806 F 08/19-10 7 0 53 28 W 7 1 4343 W 16 63283 G 08/19-11 7 0 56 25 W 8 1 5341 W 17 80761 G 08/19-12 36 0 59 23 W 9 9 2 1 NW26 6339 NW 17 98238 G 08/19-13 36 0 61 21 NW 9 1 6905 NW 17 102036 V 08/19-14 36 10 62 20 NW 10 2 7470 NW 16 105834 V 08/19-15 36 10 63 20 NW 10 10 2 2 NW21 8036 NW 16 109631 V 08/19-16 36 10 63 20 NW 12 2 7813 NW 16 109016 V 08/19-17 36 10 63 21 NW 13 2 7589 NW 16 108401 V 08/19-18 36 10 61 23 NW 14 21 2 2 NW23 7366 NW 17 107786 V 08/19-19 36 10 58 26 NW 13 2 5902 NW 15 81481 G 08/19-20 36 10 55 30 W 12 2 4438 NW 13 55176 F 08/19-21 36 10 52 34 W 9 9 2 2 N21 2974 NW 12 28872 P 08/19-22 36 10 50 37 SW 7 2 2072 NW 8 19349 P 08/19-23 36 10 47 41 SW 5 2 1171 NW 5 9826 P 08/20-00 12 0 44 46 SW 3 3 2 1 N18 269 CALM 304 P 08/20-01 12 0 41 52 S 3 1 235 CALM 312 P 08/20-02 12 0 39 56 S 3 1 200 S 2 321 P 08/20-03 12 0 38 57 S 3 3 3 1 N20 165 SE 2 329 P 08/20-04 12 0 38 58 S 3 1 165 S 2 352 P 08/20-05 12 0 37 59 S 3 1 165 S 2 374 P 08/20-06 12 0 37 58 S 3 3 3 1 N23 165 SW 2 397 P 08/20-07 12 0 38 56 S 3 1 804 SW 3 2568 P 08/20-08 12 0 44 45 SW 2 1 1444 W 3 4740 P 08/20-09 12 0 50 36 W 2 2 3 1 N21 2084 W 3 6911 P 08/20-10 12 0 55 31 W 3 1 3002 W 5 12934 P 08/20-11 12 0 58 27 W 5 1 3920 W 6 18957 P 08/20-12 23 5 61 25 NW 6 6 3 1 N14 4839 W 6 24980 P 08/20-13 23 5 63 23 NW 7 1 5444 W 6 30066 P 08/20-14 23 5 64 22 NW 8 1 6048 W 7 35152 P 08/20-15 23 5 65 21 NW 8 8 3 1 NW10 6653 W 7 40237 F 08/20-16 23 5 65 21 NW 8 1 6001 W 7 36507 P 08/20-17 23 5 65 22 NW 8 1 5348 NW 7 32776 P 08/20-18 23 5 63 23 NW 7 7 2 1 NW10 4695 NW 7 29045 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JOEL COCHRAN REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090817.BUFFA.01/BOU