FNUS73 KMQT 171418 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSH CREEK NORTH INTERIOR...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1018 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON AUGUST 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY FOR THE FIRE SITE. AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 MPH. HOWEVER...THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR TO MOVE IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD ONLY DROP TO THE 45 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE EXCELLENT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL END UP BEING COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79. MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH LOWERING TO 2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (390). MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%)......... 18 17 16 17 19 21 23 24 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............ 77 78 79 79 78 77 76 75 RH.............. 55 53 51 49 50 53 56 60 GENERAL WIND DIR..SW SW S S S S S S GENERAL WIND SPD..5 5 8 9 9 10 8 8 GENERAL WIND GST..10 10 13 15 15 16 14 14 VINDX KT-FT/100. 390 357 308 325 384 358 374 276 MIX HGT (KFT)... 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.1 4.2 2.8 HAINES INDEX.... 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (23). MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1100 FT AGL. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........25 29 35 39 35 29 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............73 65 61 63 61 60 RH..............66 86 96 88 91 94 GENERAL WIND....S 7 S 7 S 6 S 6 S 6 SW 6 GENERAL GUST....15 15 10 10 10 10 VINDX KT-FT/100.138 51 40 72 53 28 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 300 200 400 300 200 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 6 TO 11 MPH BY LATE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 28 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (521) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1023) IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO GOOD (478) EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-4900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5200-6800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........25 32 41 47 45 43 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............61 68 73 74 72 68 RH..............92 72 60 56 58 64 GENERAL WIND....SW 7 SW 7 W 7 NW 9 NW 9 NW 8 GENERAL GUST....15 15 15 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.50 171 521 994 958 673 MIX HGT (FT)....300 900 3300 6200 6800 5200 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...MRD REQUESTED BY...GARY LINDSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090817.MARSH.01/MQT