FNUS75 KBOU 190045 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR WILLOW...BLM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 640 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS PASSED OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AT THIS HOUR. THIS HAS CAUSED WINDS OVER SUMMIT COUNTY TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO USHER IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM COLORADO...LOOK FOR DRIER...WARMER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-45%) UNTIL 2200...THEN CLEARING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39. MAX HUMIDITY........58-56%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 6-12 MPH LATE THIS EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...LOWERING TO 200-400 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...BECOMING POOR AFTER 2300. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-69. MIN HUMIDITY........22-27%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-9 MPH UNTIL 0900... THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 6-11 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 9-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7-13 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST 17-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...INCREASING TO 5800-6800 FT AGL AFTER 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...BECOMING VERY GOOD AFTER 1300. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-42. MAX HUMIDITY........59-66%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5400-6400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 200-400 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....66. MIN HUMIDITY........21%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. GOOD AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR WILLOW. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/18-18 40 0 54 28 W 9 9 2 1 NW30 5235 W 17 76520 G 08/18-19 43 0 54 27 W 12 1 4784 W 17 70074 G 08/18-20 43 0 54 26 W 14 1 4334 W 17 63628 G 08/18-21 34 0 51 30 W 14 22 2 1 NW35 3883 W 17 57181 F 08/18-22 34 0 49 32 W 13 1 2692 W 14 38728 P 08/18-23 34 0 46 35 W 13 1 1501 W 10 20275 P 08/19-00 10 0 43 38 W 7 7 2 1 W39 310 W 7 1822 P 08/19-01 10 0 40 42 W 7 1 264 W 7 1605 P 08/19-02 10 0 38 44 SW 8 1 219 W 7 1389 P 08/19-03 10 0 37 45 SW 8 8 2 1 W37 173 W 8 1172 P 08/19-04 10 0 36 44 W 8 1 178 W 7 1073 P 08/19-05 10 0 35 45 W 7 1 184 W 6 975 P 08/19-06 7 0 36 51 SW 5 5 2 1 NW33 189 W 6 876 P 08/19-07 7 0 37 52 W 6 1 1341 W 9 18394 P 08/19-08 7 0 42 45 W 7 1 2493 W 13 35912 P 08/19-09 7 0 48 40 W 7 7 2 1 NW37 3646 W 17 53429 F 08/19-10 7 0 52 32 W 9 1 4445 W 18 75433 G 08/19-11 7 0 56 28 W 10 1 5245 NW 21 97436 G 08/19-12 33 5 58 25 NW 13 13 2 1 NW32 6044 NW 23 119440 V 08/19-13 33 5 60 24 NW 13 1 6415 NW 22 120946 V 08/19-14 33 5 62 23 NW 14 1 6786 NW 21 122452 V 08/19-15 33 5 63 23 NW 14 22 2 1 NW31 7158 NW 20 123958 V 08/19-16 33 5 63 23 NW 14 1 6885 NW 18 113739 V 08/19-17 33 5 62 23 NW 14 1 6612 NW 18 103520 V 08/19-18 35 5 61 23 NW 12 12 2 1 NW32 6339 NW 17 93301 G 08/19-19 35 5 58 27 NW 9 1 5491 NW 18 89769 G 08/19-20 35 5 55 33 NW 8 1 4319 NW 17 66763 G 08/19-21 35 5 51 40 NW 7 7 2 1 NW33 3147 NW 16 43757 F 08/19-22 35 5 50 46 NW 7 1 2198 NW 14 29905 P 08/19-23 35 5 48 53 W 8 1 1249 NW 12 16053 P 08/20-00 12 0 44 61 W 8 8 2 1 NW36 300 W 8 2202 P 08/20-01 12 0 41 68 W 8 1 260 W 8 1866 P 08/20-02 12 0 39 70 W 7 1 219 W 8 1530 P 08/20-03 12 0 38 69 W 7 7 2 1 N51 179 W 8 1194 P 08/20-04 12 0 38 66 W 7 1 185 W 8 1337 P 08/20-05 12 0 37 64 W 8 1 191 W 9 1479 P 08/20-06 12 0 38 60 W 8 8 2 1 N53 196 W 9 1622 P 08/20-07 12 0 39 58 NW 7 1 1193 NW 12 16934 P 08/20-08 12 0 44 47 NW 6 1 2190 NW 15 32247 P 08/20-09 12 0 50 39 NW 5 5 3 1 N47 3187 NW 17 47560 F 08/20-10 12 0 54 33 NW 6 1 3706 NW 17 57933 F 08/20-11 12 0 58 30 NW 8 1 4226 NW 18 68307 G 08/20-12 23 0 60 28 NW 10 10 4 1 N38 4745 NW 20 78680 G 08/20-13 23 0 62 25 NW 10 1 5052 NW 18 79203 G 08/20-14 23 0 64 23 NW 9 1 5359 NW 17 79727 G 08/20-15 23 0 65 22 NW 8 8 4 1 N31 5665 NW 16 80251 G 08/20-16 23 0 65 21 NW 8 1 5334 NW 16 73587 G 08/20-17 23 0 64 21 NW 9 1 5004 NW 15 66924 G 08/20-18 23 0 63 22 NW 9 9 3 1 N28 4673 NW 15 60261 G 08/20-19 23 0 60 25 NW 9 1 3595 NW 13 43993 F 08/20-20 23 0 56 29 NW 9 1 2517 NW 12 27725 P 08/20-21 23 0 53 34 W 9 9 3 1 N26 1439 NW 9 11457 P 08/20-22 23 0 50 38 W 9 1 1032 NW 8 8026 P 08/20-23 23 0 48 43 W 8 1 625 W 7 4594 P 08/21-00 10 0 45 49 W 8 8 4 1 NW26 218 W 6 1162 P 08/21-01 10 0 41 56 W 8 1 192 W 6 1008 P 08/21-02 10 0 39 61 W 8 1 166 W 6 853 P 08/21-03 10 0 38 63 W 7 7 5 1 N24 140 W 6 698 P 08/21-04 10 0 38 64 W 7 1 138 W 6 662 P 08/21-05 10 0 37 65 W 7 1 136 W 6 627 P 08/21-06 10 0 38 64 W 7 7 4 1 N23 134 W 5 591 P 08/21-07 10 0 39 61 W 7 1 341 W 5 1564 P 08/21-08 10 0 45 48 W 7 1 548 W 6 2537 P 08/21-09 10 0 50 39 W 8 8 5 1 N21 756 NW 6 3511 P 08/21-10 10 0 55 32 W 8 1 2159 NW 7 15753 P 08/21-11 10 0 59 29 NW 8 1 3561 NW 8 27996 P 08/21-12 25 0 61 26 NW 8 8 3 1 N17 4964 NW 9 40239 F 08/21-13 25 0 64 24 NW 8 1 5752 NW 9 44875 F 08/21-14 25 0 65 23 NW 8 1 6539 NW 9 49512 F 08/21-15 25 0 66 22 W 8 8 3 1 N13 7326 NW 8 54148 F 08/21-16 25 0 66 22 W 8 1 6450 NW 8 45932 F 08/21-17 25 0 65 23 W 8 1 5574 NW 8 37717 P 08/21-18 25 0 64 24 W 7 7 4 1 N10 4698 NW 7 29501 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...AMY CARMICHAEL REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090818.WILLO.01/BOU