FNUS75 KGJT 180614
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TAYLOR CANYON...USFS GUNNISON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1214 AM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE FIRE SITE
TODAY. TIMING LOOKS LIKE THIS EARLY MORNING...WITH THE SECOND
PASSING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BEFORE
SUNSET. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION WILL BE WEAK TONIGHT AND BREAK EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DRY DISTURBANCE WILL PASS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INCREASING NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND.

OBSERVATION NOTE: YOUR OBSERVED TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER THEN
EVERY OTHER TOWER IN THE LOCAL AREA, INCLUDING GUNNISON AIRPORT.
I BELIEVE YOUR OBSERVATIONS WERE ACCURATE...BUT YIKES! HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST UP A BIT IN RESPONSE...BUT BELIEVE CLOUDS
TODAY WILL KEEP THE FIRE SITE COOLER.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-60%). ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE. THEN PARTIAL
                    MORNING CLEARING. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE 2-5 MPH UNTIL 1100. THEN SOUTHWEST TO
                    WEST 5-10 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
                    GUSTY ERRATIC AFTERNOON WINDS NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-5000 FT AGL IN THE MORNING...INCREASING
                    TO 15000 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-19%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH
                    WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR  UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR. BECOMING VERY
                    GOOD BY 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 3000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...JEREMY SPETTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090818.TAYLO.01/GJT