FNUS73 KMQT 191318 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSH CREEK NORTH INTERIOR...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 918 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON AUGUST 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...EXPECT A DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AT THE BURN SITE AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LINGER INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SENEY AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68 AT IGNITION...MAX 77. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (239) AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (743) IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...THEN TO 4400-6100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........12 19 24 38 52 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............68 74 76 76 74 RH..............54 44 43 45 50 GENERAL WIND....S 7 S 7 S 7 S 7 S 7 GENERAL GUST....15 15 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.239 430 671 743 621 MIX HGT (FT)....3000 5400 6100 5000 3700 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 58. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 97 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 36 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (14). MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-300 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.05 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........56 59 63 66 73 83 WEATHER COV..... LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............73 67 63 61 60 59 RH..............53 65 78 82 88 97 GENERAL WIND....SE 6 SE 6 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 GENERAL GUST....15 15 15 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.488 148 14 50 62 48 MIX HGT (FT)....2900 1000 100 300 200 200 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 70. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 71 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LAL.................3. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.35 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........90 89 87 86 87 89 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............60 64 68 70 70 70 RH..............95 84 75 71 71 71 GENERAL WIND....SE 10 SE 10 SE 11 SE 10 SE 10 SE 9 GENERAL GUST....20 20 20 20 20 20 $$ FORECASTER...JLA REQUESTED BY...GARY LINDSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090819.MARSH.01/MQT