FNUS75 KMSO 212004
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR LILLY LAKE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
204 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1353 MDT ON AUGUST 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUPPORT INCREASING AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND HELP
FURTHER FOCUS THE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS INCREASE THE WINDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM.
                    STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY
                    WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 5-9 MPH.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS
                    TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE
                    EVENING.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY
                    RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE WITH
                    STORMS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-15 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING THE EVENING.  WIND BECOMING
                    VARIABLE TO 5 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 2-4 MPH BECOMING WEST 5-8 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

$$
FORECASTER...BAUCK
REQUESTED BY...DDC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WFU
.TAG 20090821.LILLY.01/MSO