FNUS75 KMSO 220325
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR LILY LAKE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
925 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 2100 MDT ON AUGUST 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FIRE WITH A STALLED SURFACE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS SURFACE FEATURE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP A THREAT OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FIRE...LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION...AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SURFACE FEATURE WILL KEEP WINDS UP LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE FOR
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER...EXCEPT NEAR
STORMS.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 2-4 MPH BECOMING WEST 8-12 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    VARIABLE 2-4 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5-6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...DOUG CAFFEE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WFU
.TAG 20090821.LILYL.01/MSO