FNUS75 KMSO 232228
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR LILY LAKE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
428 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1606 MDT ON AUGUST 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS COMBINING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FIRE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN END BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. REPORTS FROM UPSTREAM STATIONS INDICATE GOOD MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS SO WETTING RAIN IS HIGHLY PROBABLE
FROM SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALOFT
AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A DRYING AND
SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
                    2000 MDT...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE WINDS 5-6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE 2-4 MPH AFTER SUNSET.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLEARING.
                    AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE AROUND 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...DOUG CAFFEE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WFU
.TAG 20090823.LILYL.01/MSO