FNUS75 KBOU 240819 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP CREEK 2 UNIT D...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 200 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ONLY A SHALLOW INVERSION THIS MORNING...SO MIXING WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS MORNING. NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THOUGH CONVECTION COULD INTERFERE WITH THE WIND PATTERN AT ANY TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM...WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...THEN BACK TO DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHTER ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LESS SMOKE DISPERSION. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 0900...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1200...THEN CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-78. MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 11000 FT AGL BY 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD AFTER 0800...VERY GOOD AFTER 1100... EXCELLENT AFTER 1300. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 0300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-50. MAX HUMIDITY........65-75%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 6-12 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 2100 AND 1000 FT AGL BY 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1300...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-74. MIN HUMIDITY........32-38%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 8-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 3000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 8000 FT AGL BY 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SHEEP CREEK 2 UNIT D. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/24-01 70 0 57 73 N 2 1 590 W 13 5825 P 08/24-02 70 0 56 75 NW 5 1 441 W 14 4830 P 08/24-03 44 0 54 76 W 7 7 2 1 S32 293 W 15 3835 P 08/24-04 44 0 52 78 W 10 1 283 W 16 4005 P 08/24-05 29 0 52 76 W 10 1 272 W 17 4175 P 08/24-06 29 5 52 72 SW 10 10 3 1 SW26 262 W 20 4345 P 08/24-07 29 5 54 66 W 10 1 1217 W 22 28945 P 08/24-08 29 5 57 57 W 10 1 2173 W 25 53544 F 08/24-09 37 5 62 48 W 10 10 3 1 W18 3128 W 29 78144 G 08/24-10 37 5 66 41 W 10 1 4717 W 25 95020 G 08/24-11 37 5 69 37 W 10 1 6306 W 22 111896 V 08/24-12 76 40 71 35 W 10 10 3 4 S12 7894 W 18 128771 V 08/24-13 76 40 73 34 W 9 4 9267 W 17 130852 V 08/24-14 76 40 74 35 W 8 4 10639 SW 15 132932 V 08/24-15 85 40 74 35 W 6 6 2 4 S17 12012 SW 13 135012 V 08/24-16 85 40 74 33 W 6 4 11524 SW 14 138919 V 08/24-17 85 40 74 32 W 6 4 11036 SW 15 142825 V 08/24-18 90 30 73 32 SW 7 7 2 4 SW20 10547 SW 16 146731 V 08/24-19 90 30 69 35 SW 6 4 7941 SW 14 106075 V 08/24-20 90 30 66 40 SW 6 4 5335 SW 13 65420 G 08/24-21 90 30 63 45 W 6 6 3 4 SW20 2730 SW 10 24764 P 08/24-22 90 10 61 49 W 6 2 1921 SW 9 17230 P 08/24-23 90 10 58 53 W 6 2 1112 W 9 9696 P 08/25-00 66 10 55 60 W 6 6 2 2 SW17 303 W 8 2162 P 08/25-01 66 10 52 64 W 7 2 273 W 8 1975 P 08/25-02 66 0 50 67 W 7 1 242 W 8 1788 P 08/25-03 54 0 49 67 W 7 7 2 1 SW17 212 W 9 1601 P 08/25-04 54 0 49 66 W 6 1 215 W 7 1388 P 08/25-05 54 0 48 66 W 5 1 217 W 6 1176 P 08/25-06 54 0 49 70 SW 5 5 2 1 W13 220 W 5 963 P 08/25-07 54 0 50 70 SW 6 1 927 W 5 4038 P 08/25-08 54 0 54 62 SW 6 1 1637 W 5 7124 P 08/25-09 54 0 59 55 S 7 7 2 1 W15 2347 SW 5 10209 P 08/25-10 54 0 63 46 S 7 1 4839 W 6 29856 P 08/25-11 54 0 66 42 S 7 1 7330 W 7 49504 F 08/25-12 54 30 68 38 S 8 8 2 4 W17 9821 W 8 69151 G 08/25-13 78 30 70 36 S 10 4 9987 SW 8 74215 G 08/25-14 78 30 71 35 S 14 4 10154 SW 9 79279 G 08/25-15 78 30 72 34 S 15 24 2 4 W22 10320 SW 9 84343 G 08/25-16 78 30 72 36 S 14 4 10010 SW 9 83441 G 08/25-17 78 30 71 38 S 12 4 9701 SW 10 82539 G 08/25-18 78 30 70 43 S 8 8 2 3 W22 9391 SW 10 81636 G 08/25-19 78 30 67 43 S 8 3 7285 SW 10 64444 G 08/25-20 78 30 64 47 S 8 3 5179 S 10 47252 F 08/25-21 78 30 61 51 S 8 8 2 3 W24 3072 S 12 30060 P 08/25-22 78 30 59 54 S 8 3 2172 S 10 21120 P 08/25-23 78 30 57 57 SW 8 3 1271 S 10 12180 P 08/26-00 78 30 54 63 SW 8 8 2 3 W16 371 S 10 3240 P 08/26-01 78 9 52 67 SW 8 1 299 SW 9 2552 P 08/26-02 54 9 50 69 SW 8 1 227 SW 9 1863 P 08/26-03 54 9 49 70 SW 8 8 2 1 W 7 155 SW 9 1175 P 08/26-04 54 9 49 70 SW 9 1 156 SW 9 1229 P 08/26-05 54 9 48 70 W 9 1 157 W 9 1283 P 08/26-06 54 5 49 68 W 9 9 2 1 NW 5 159 W 9 1336 P 08/26-07 54 5 50 66 W 9 1 602 W 9 4739 P 08/26-08 54 5 54 57 W 8 1 1045 NW 9 8141 P 08/26-09 54 5 59 49 W 8 8 2 1 N 5 1489 NW 9 11543 P 08/26-10 54 5 63 41 W 7 1 4209 NW 8 28966 P 08/26-11 54 5 66 37 NW 7 1 6929 NW 8 46388 F 08/26-12 66 25 68 33 NW 7 7 2 4 NW 6 9649 NW 8 63811 G 08/26-13 66 25 70 31 NW 7 4 10260 NW 8 76032 G 08/26-14 66 25 71 30 NW 7 4 10870 NW 9 88252 G 08/26-15 66 25 72 29 NW 7 7 3 4 NW14 11480 NW 10 100473 V 08/26-16 66 25 72 30 W 7 4 10884 NW 10 98521 G 08/26-17 66 25 71 32 W 7 4 10289 NW 10 96570 G 08/26-18 66 25 70 33 W 7 7 2 4 NW23 9693 NW 12 94618 G 08/26-19 66 25 67 37 W 6 4 7125 W 9 65321 G 08/26-20 66 25 63 41 W 5 4 4557 W 7 36024 P 08/26-21 66 25 61 45 W 3 3 2 4 NW20 1990 SW 3 6726 P 08/26-22 66 25 59 48 SW 2 4 1399 SW 3 4589 P 08/26-23 66 0 57 51 CALM 1 809 W 2 2452 P 08/27-00 29 0 54 57 CALM 1 2 1 NW18 218 CALM 315 P 08/27-01 29 0 52 61 CALM 1 193 W 2 365 P 08/27-02 29 0 50 64 SW 2 1 168 W 3 414 P 08/27-03 29 0 49 65 SW 3 3 2 1 N20 143 W 3 464 P 08/27-04 29 0 48 66 W 5 1 146 W 5 655 P 08/27-05 29 0 48 66 W 7 1 149 W 7 847 P 08/27-06 29 0 48 65 W 8 8 2 1 N21 152 W 8 1039 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...JOHN WEBER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090824.SHEEP.01/BOU