FNUS75 KGJT 241422
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR NARRAGUINNEP...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
822 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0718 MDT ON AUGUST 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE HEAVIEST SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS LIFTED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FIRE SITE THIS MORNING. SO EXPECT SOME MORNING
CLEARING. BUT THERE IS SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINSHOWERS DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION...TO THE NORTHEAST AT ONLY 8
MPH. NO FORCING SEEN TONIGHT SO EXPECT AREA SHOWERS TO END WITH
SUNSET. THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION WILL BE WEAK AND BREAK TUESDAY
MID-MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LESS CHANCE
OF RAIN. A WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SHIFT THE LATE AFTERNOON
WINDS TO NORTHWEST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED AFTERNOON
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 1-3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 3-6 MPH BY NOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL BY 1400.
                    HIGHER NEAR STORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. THEN PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 1-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2500-25700 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1400 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1500...THEN BECOMING
                    SCATTERED
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 5 MPH UNTIL 1000. THEN SHIFTING TO
                    SOUTHWEST 3-6 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
                    WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNSET.  GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1000-27800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (71300-73000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. LAL OF 4 AFTER 1500.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING
                    TO 9000 FT AGL BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SOUTHWEST 10 MPH
                    UNTIL 1800...THEN SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...SAN JUAN IHC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090824.NARRA.01/GJT