FNUS75 KRIW 241646
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PORCUPINE FIRE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1046 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0959 MDT ON AUGUST 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM UTAH THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FIRE AREA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
FAIR CHANCE WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THE FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ANY PASSING SHOWER WILL BE WET AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER IN A 10 TO 15 MINUTE
PERIOD. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. VERY DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...PUTTING AN END TO ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...CHURCH

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST-NORTHWEST 3-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 8-12 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.25 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE
                    GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (30200-44000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2300-12500 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-64.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-36 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 7
                    TO 14 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (13900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (76100
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...CHURCH
REQUESTED BY...BILL  MOE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090824.PORCU.01/RIW