FNUS75 KBOU 271045 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP CREEK 2 UNIT D...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 445 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS TODAY. WITH THE NORTH AND EAST ASPECTS OF THE BURN SITE AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD OF BURNING. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MODERATE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSION. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....78. MIN HUMIDITY........15-19%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH/NORTHEAST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN INCREASING TO 11800-12800 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000... THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-45. MAX HUMIDITY........66-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 6-12 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN SOUTHWEST 5-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......12600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...DECREASING TO 200-400 FT AGL BY 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN QUICKLY BECOMING POOR BY 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74. MIN HUMIDITY........20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN INCREASING TO 9800-10800 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SHEEP CREEK 2 UNIT D. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/27-04 19 0 46 48 NW 2 1 129 W 3 412 P 08/27-05 19 0 45 53 NW 2 1 124 W 5 437 P 08/27-06 9 0 45 59 NW 3 3 2 1 N 8 120 W 5 462 P 08/27-07 9 0 50 56 NW 5 1 1432 W 7 14166 P 08/27-08 9 0 55 50 NW 5 1 2744 NW 9 27870 P 08/27-09 9 0 61 43 N 5 7 2 1 N15 4056 N 12 41574 F 08/27-10 9 0 66 33 N 7 1 6485 N 12 69209 G 08/27-11 9 0 70 26 N 8 1 8914 N 13 96843 G 08/27-12 19 0 73 21 N 8 10 2 1 N15 11343 N 13 124478 V 08/27-13 19 0 75 20 NE 9 1 11945 N 13 134749 V 08/27-14 27 0 76 20 NE 10 1 12547 N 14 145019 V 08/27-15 27 0 76 19 NE 11 15 3 1 N15 13149 N 14 155290 E 08/27-16 27 0 76 18 NE 12 1 12992 N 14 154808 E 08/27-17 27 0 76 19 NE 12 1 12834 N 14 154325 E 08/27-18 27 0 75 20 NE 11 15 3 1 N18 12677 N 14 153842 E 08/27-19 27 0 70 24 NE 9 1 8581 NE 10 103070 V 08/27-20 18 0 65 29 SE 6 1 4485 E 8 52297 F 08/27-21 18 0 62 34 S 3 3 3 1 N20 389 E 5 1525 P 08/27-22 18 0 58 39 S 3 1 316 SE 5 1313 P 08/27-23 18 0 55 44 S 5 1 243 S 6 1101 P 08/28-00 13 0 53 49 SW 6 6 2 1 N18 170 SW 6 888 P 08/28-01 13 0 51 53 SW 6 1 152 SW 6 780 P 08/28-02 13 0 50 57 SW 6 1 135 SW 6 671 P 08/28-03 13 0 48 61 SW 6 6 2 1 N22 117 W 6 562 P 08/28-04 13 0 47 65 SW 6 1 125 W 6 557 P 08/28-05 13 0 46 69 W 5 1 132 W 5 551 P 08/28-06 25 0 46 69 W 5 5 3 1 N23 140 W 5 545 P 08/28-07 25 0 49 59 W 5 1 225 NW 6 1072 P 08/28-08 25 0 54 50 NW 5 1 296 NW 6 1317 P 08/28-09 25 0 58 43 NW 5 5 2 1 N25 367 N 5 1562 P 08/28-10 25 0 63 35 NW 5 1 3484 N 8 39312 P 08/28-11 25 0 66 31 N 5 1 6600 N 10 77061 G 08/28-12 48 0 69 27 N 6 6 2 1 NW22 9717 N 14 114811 V 08/28-13 48 0 71 24 N 7 1 10064 N 13 114753 V 08/28-14 48 10 72 21 N 9 2 10411 N 13 114694 V 08/28-15 48 10 73 20 N 10 10 2 2 NW23 10757 N 13 114636 V 08/28-16 48 10 73 21 N 10 2 10408 N 10 98987 G 08/28-17 48 10 72 23 NE 9 2 10058 N 9 83339 G 08/28-18 42 10 71 25 NE 8 8 2 2 W23 9708 N 8 67690 G 08/28-19 42 10 67 30 NE 7 2 6597 N 8 45931 F 08/28-20 42 0 63 36 E 7 1 3487 E 8 24173 P 08/28-21 42 0 59 41 SE 6 6 2 1 NW23 376 E 7 2414 P 08/28-22 42 0 57 46 SE 6 1 330 SE 7 1992 P 08/28-23 42 0 55 51 S 5 1 284 SE 6 1570 P 08/29-00 25 0 51 58 S 5 5 2 1 NW23 238 S 6 1148 P 08/29-01 25 0 48 63 S 5 1 204 S 6 977 P 08/29-02 25 0 46 67 S 5 1 170 S 6 806 P 08/29-03 25 0 45 67 S 5 5 2 1 NW21 137 S 6 635 P 08/29-04 25 0 44 67 SW 6 1 136 SW 6 694 P 08/29-05 25 0 43 67 W 6 1 135 W 7 753 P 08/29-06 25 0 44 67 W 7 7 4 1 NW18 135 W 7 813 P 08/29-07 25 0 45 66 NW 7 1 189 W 7 1138 P 08/29-08 25 0 50 58 NW 7 1 243 NW 7 1463 P 08/29-09 25 0 56 48 NW 7 7 3 1 NW20 297 NW 7 1788 P 08/29-10 25 0 61 39 N 7 1 2790 NW 7 19097 P 08/29-11 25 0 64 33 NE 7 1 5282 NW 8 36406 P 08/29-12 53 0 67 29 NE 7 7 3 1 NW21 7775 NW 8 53715 F 08/29-13 53 0 69 27 E 8 1 8742 NW 8 64646 G 08/29-14 53 17 70 27 E 8 3 9710 NW 9 75576 G 08/29-15 53 17 71 27 E 9 9 3 3 W24 10678 NW 9 86507 G 08/29-16 53 17 71 27 E 9 3 9048 N 8 66910 G 08/29-17 53 17 70 28 E 10 3 7418 NE 7 47313 F 08/29-18 53 17 69 30 E 10 10 3 3 W26 5788 E 6 27716 P 08/29-19 53 17 65 34 E 10 3 3987 E 7 19599 P 08/29-20 53 17 61 40 SE 9 3 2187 E 8 11481 P 08/29-21 53 17 58 45 SE 9 9 3 3 W25 386 SE 10 3364 P 08/29-22 53 17 56 49 SE 9 3 348 SE 9 2931 P 08/29-23 53 17 54 54 SE 8 3 311 SE 9 2497 P 08/30-00 44 0 51 61 SE 8 8 3 1 NW24 273 SE 9 2064 P 08/30-01 44 0 48 68 SE 8 1 242 SE 8 1780 P 08/30-02 44 0 46 72 SE 8 1 211 S 8 1497 P 08/30-03 44 0 45 74 S 8 8 3 1 NW24 179 S 8 1213 P 08/30-04 44 0 44 75 S 8 1 173 S 8 1152 P 08/30-05 44 0 43 76 S 8 1 167 S 8 1092 P 08/30-06 44 0 44 76 S 8 8 3 1 W24 160 S 7 1031 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DAVID HAMRICK REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090827.SHEEP.01/BOU