FNUS75 KBOU 281055 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP CREEK 2 UNIT D...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 455 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN MORE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY ALSO HELP SPARK AN ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM. WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76. MIN HUMIDITY........18%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5-12 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN NORTHEAST 8-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN QUICKLY INCREASING TO 11200-12200 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42. MAX HUMIDITY........73%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5-12 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...QUICKLY DECREASING TO 400-1400 FT AGL BY 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72. MIN HUMIDITY........26%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 4-5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN EAST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST UP TO 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...INCREASING TO 8800-9800 FT AGL BY 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SHEEP CREEK 2 UNIT D. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/28-04 13 0 47 46 SW 6 1 133 W 5 534 P 08/28-05 13 0 47 51 W 5 1 143 W 5 503 P 08/28-06 13 0 47 55 W 3 3 2 1 N20 152 W 3 471 P 08/28-07 13 0 49 53 W 3 1 539 NW 5 2984 P 08/28-08 13 0 54 44 W 5 1 926 NW 6 5497 P 08/28-09 13 0 60 36 NW 6 6 2 1 N23 1314 NW 7 8011 P 08/28-10 13 0 65 29 NW 7 1 4366 NW 9 47971 F 08/28-11 13 0 68 25 N 9 1 7418 NW 12 87932 G 08/28-12 33 0 71 21 NE 10 14 2 1 N24 10471 NW 14 127893 V 08/28-13 33 0 73 19 NE 12 1 11045 NW 13 125464 V 08/28-14 33 10 74 18 NE 12 2 11620 NW 13 123035 V 08/28-15 52 10 75 18 NE 12 15 3 2 NW21 12195 NW 12 120606 V 08/28-16 52 10 75 18 NE 12 2 12116 NW 10 108046 V 08/28-17 52 10 74 19 NE 12 2 12037 NW 9 95485 G 08/28-18 52 10 73 20 E 9 13 3 2 NW22 11958 NW 8 82924 G 08/28-19 52 10 70 24 E 9 2 8457 N 8 59144 F 08/28-20 52 0 65 29 SE 7 1 4956 E 9 35364 P 08/28-21 40 0 60 36 SE 6 6 2 1 W26 1456 SE 9 11584 P 08/28-22 40 0 56 43 SE 6 1 1046 SE 9 8369 P 08/28-23 40 0 53 50 SW 7 1 636 S 9 5154 P 08/29-00 18 0 50 56 W 6 6 2 1 NW28 227 S 10 1939 P 08/29-01 18 0 48 61 W 6 1 197 S 9 1573 P 08/29-02 18 0 46 65 W 5 1 168 S 8 1206 P 08/29-03 18 0 45 68 W 5 5 4 1 NW23 139 S 7 840 P 08/29-04 18 0 44 71 SW 5 1 128 SW 6 701 P 08/29-05 18 0 43 73 SW 5 1 118 SW 6 563 P 08/29-06 25 0 43 71 SW 5 5 4 1 NW29 108 SW 5 424 P 08/29-07 25 0 45 66 S 2 1 244 W 3 496 P 08/29-08 25 0 50 58 CALM 1 369 NW 2 525 P 08/29-09 25 0 56 48 CALM 1 3 1 NW31 493 CALM 553 P 08/29-10 25 0 61 38 E 2 1 2158 N 2 8901 P 08/29-11 25 0 64 33 E 6 1 3822 NW 3 17249 P 08/29-12 25 0 67 29 NE 7 7 3 1 NW25 5486 NW 6 25597 P 08/29-13 25 0 69 27 NE 8 1 7028 NW 6 35911 P 08/29-14 48 20 70 27 E 9 3 8571 NW 6 46225 F 08/29-15 48 20 71 26 E 9 9 3 3 W22 10113 NW 7 56540 F 08/29-16 48 20 71 27 E 10 3 9259 W 6 43868 F 08/29-17 48 20 70 28 E 12 3 8406 SW 3 31196 P 08/29-18 72 20 69 30 E 13 20 3 3 W24 7553 S 2 18525 P 08/29-19 72 20 65 34 E 12 3 5337 S 7 16402 P 08/29-20 72 20 61 40 SE 10 3 3121 SE 12 14280 P 08/29-21 72 20 58 45 SE 9 9 3 3 W26 905 SE 15 12158 P 08/29-22 72 20 56 49 SE 9 3 694 SE 15 9093 P 08/29-23 72 20 54 54 SE 9 3 482 SE 14 6028 P 08/30-00 38 0 51 61 SE 8 8 3 1 W21 271 SE 13 2963 P 08/30-01 38 0 48 68 S 6 1 241 SE 10 2201 P 08/30-02 38 0 46 72 S 3 1 212 S 7 1439 P 08/30-03 38 0 45 74 S 2 2 3 1 W15 182 S 5 677 P 08/30-04 38 0 44 75 SW 2 1 167 S 5 605 P 08/30-05 38 0 43 76 W 3 1 152 W 3 533 P 08/30-06 46 0 44 76 W 5 5 3 1 NW20 137 W 3 461 P 08/30-07 46 0 45 71 S 7 1 193 W 3 648 P 08/30-08 46 0 50 60 S 7 1 250 SW 3 835 P 08/30-09 46 0 55 50 S 6 6 3 1 NW23 306 S 3 1022 P 08/30-10 46 0 60 42 S 5 1 1262 SW 3 3738 P 08/30-11 46 0 63 38 SE 5 1 2218 W 3 6455 P 08/30-12 62 30 65 34 SE 3 3 3 4 NW28 3174 W 3 9171 P 08/30-13 62 30 67 33 SE 5 4 3930 W 3 14228 P 08/30-14 62 30 68 32 SE 5 4 4685 W 5 19285 P 08/30-15 62 30 69 31 SE 6 6 3 4 NW25 5440 W 5 24342 P 08/30-16 62 30 69 32 SE 7 4 5158 W 6 23951 P 08/30-17 62 30 68 33 SE 8 4 4876 S 6 23561 P 08/30-18 64 30 67 34 SE 8 8 3 4 NW28 4594 S 6 23170 P 08/30-19 64 30 64 39 SE 8 4 3414 S 8 19628 P 08/30-20 64 30 60 44 SE 8 4 2233 S 12 16086 P 08/30-21 64 30 58 48 SE 8 8 3 4 W24 1053 S 14 12543 P 08/30-22 64 30 56 52 S 8 4 818 S 13 9343 P 08/30-23 64 30 54 56 S 8 4 584 S 12 6143 P 08/31-00 54 0 51 61 S 8 8 3 1 W21 350 S 9 2943 P 08/31-01 54 0 48 66 S 8 1 276 S 9 2260 P 08/31-02 54 0 47 70 S 8 1 202 S 8 1578 P 08/31-03 54 0 46 73 S 8 8 3 1 W20 128 S 8 895 P 08/31-04 54 0 45 73 SW 8 1 114 SW 8 806 P 08/31-05 54 0 45 74 SW 7 1 99 SW 8 717 P 08/31-06 41 0 45 73 SW 7 7 4 1 W17 85 SW 8 628 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...GARY BATCHELDER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090827.SHEEP.02/BOU