FNUS75 KPUB 021155
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR JOHNSON GULCH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
555 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2009

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DECOUPLED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE BURN SITE.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VARIABLE
OUTFLOW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE LOWER 50S.  FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THE BURN SITE ON
THURSDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING EARLIER IN THE DAY AND WINDS BEING
A BIT STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND DECENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT NIGHT.  EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIND
GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.  UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(40 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80F.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........UPSLOPE 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 1100 THEN EAST 5 TO
                    8 MPH WITH GUSTS 12 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN SOUTHEAST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(40 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH DURING THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 3 TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN EAST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(60 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75F.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........UPSLOPE 3 TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    UP TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    NORTHWEST UNTIL 1700...THEN NORTHEAST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.

$$
FORECASTER...MOZLEY
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090901.JOHNS.02/PUB