FNUS75 KBOU 021619 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1006 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT SMOKE AND SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH MORE SMOKE STILL UPSTREAM...SEE LITTLE IMPROVE IN THE PREVAILING VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER AIR WEATHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW NOW OVER NORTHERN UTAH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SEARCH AREA. LOOK FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO BEGIN FORMING OVER THE HIGH RIDGES BETWEEN 1200 AND 1300 HOURS BEFORE MOVING OVER THE SURROUNDING AREAS. LIGHT RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRINCIPLE THREAT WITH THE PASSING STORMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. HAZY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1230. MAX TEMPERATURE.....77. MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL UNTIL 1100. 11800-12800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1230...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. HAZY UNTIL 2100. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49. MAX HUMIDITY........74%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 0900...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76. MIN HUMIDITY........23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 10200-11200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR WEST CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/02-10 37 0 66 28 NW 2 1 5201 NW 10 52952 F 09/02-11 37 0 70 26 NE 2 1 8747 NW 12 92591 G 09/02-12 37 10 72 24 E 3 3 3 2 NW17 12293 NW 13 132231 V 09/02-13 37 10 74 22 E 5 2 12552 NW 12 121804 V 09/02-14 37 10 76 22 E 5 2 12810 NW 10 111376 V 09/02-15 63 10 77 21 E 5 5 3 2 NW13 13069 NW 9 100949 V 09/02-16 63 10 76 22 E 5 2 12285 NW 8 90362 G 09/02-17 63 10 75 23 E 5 2 11501 NW 8 79774 G 09/02-18 83 10 74 25 E 5 5 2 2 NW17 10717 NW 7 69187 G 09/02-19 83 10 70 29 NE 6 2 7927 NW 7 51008 F 09/02-20 83 10 66 35 NW 6 2 5136 NW 7 32830 P 09/02-21 69 4 63 40 W 7 7 2 1 NW18 2346 NW 7 14651 P 09/02-22 69 4 57 50 W 6 1 1631 NW 6 9940 P 09/02-23 69 4 54 56 NW 5 1 915 N 5 5229 P 09/03-00 38 0 53 61 NW 3 3 2 1 NW18 199 N 3 518 P 09/03-01 38 0 50 66 NW 5 1 190 NW 3 620 P 09/03-02 38 0 50 68 NW 6 1 180 NW 5 721 P 09/03-03 26 0 48 71 W 7 7 2 1 NW24 171 W 6 823 P 09/03-04 26 0 47 74 W 7 1 170 W 6 846 P 09/03-05 26 0 46 74 W 7 1 169 W 6 869 P 09/03-06 17 0 48 70 W 7 7 2 1 NW23 168 W 6 892 P 09/03-07 17 0 49 65 NW 6 1 1576 W 7 12189 P 09/03-08 17 0 54 55 NW 5 1 2898 NW 8 22986 P 09/03-09 33 0 60 44 N 2 2 2 1 N18 4219 N 9 33782 P 09/03-10 33 0 65 36 N 3 1 6074 N 9 51625 F 09/03-11 33 0 68 33 NE 5 1 7930 NW 10 69468 G 09/03-12 57 15 71 29 NE 6 7 2 3 NW20 9785 NW 10 87311 G 09/03-13 57 15 73 27 E 6 3 10378 NW 10 92904 G 09/03-14 57 15 74 25 E 6 3 10970 N 10 98496 G 09/03-15 65 15 75 23 E 5 10 2 3 NW18 11562 N 10 104089 V 09/03-16 65 15 75 23 E 5 3 11047 N 10 96215 G 09/03-17 65 15 73 23 E 6 3 10532 N 9 88341 G 09/03-18 51 15 73 24 E 9 9 2 3 N21 10017 N 9 80467 G 09/03-19 51 15 69 28 SE 9 3 8124 NE 7 57130 F 09/03-20 51 15 64 34 S 9 3 6231 E 5 33793 P 09/03-21 51 15 61 39 SW 9 9 2 3 NW24 4338 E 2 10456 P 09/03-22 51 15 59 44 SW 9 3 3028 SE 3 7670 P 09/03-23 51 15 57 50 W 9 3 1717 S 5 4883 P 09/04-00 43 0 53 58 W 9 9 2 1 N23 406 SW 6 2096 P 09/04-01 43 0 51 64 W 9 1 338 SW 7 1884 P 09/04-02 43 0 49 68 W 9 1 270 W 8 1671 P 09/04-03 43 0 47 70 W 9 9 3 1 N16 203 W 8 1459 P 09/04-04 43 0 47 70 W 10 1 188 W 8 1340 P 09/04-05 43 0 46 69 W 12 1 174 W 8 1222 P 09/04-06 43 0 46 67 W 10 10 4 1 NE10 160 W 8 1103 P 09/04-07 43 0 48 62 NW 8 1 1522 NW 8 10446 P 09/04-08 43 0 54 50 N 6 1 2885 N 8 19788 P 09/04-09 43 0 60 39 N 3 3 4 1 NE 6 4247 N 8 29131 P 09/04-10 43 0 66 32 N 5 1 5824 N 7 33444 P 09/04-11 43 0 69 28 NE 6 1 7402 N 6 37757 P 09/04-12 55 15 72 25 E 8 8 2 3 NW 8 8979 N 6 42071 F 09/04-13 55 15 74 24 E 9 3 10080 N 5 43580 F 09/04-14 55 15 76 23 E 10 3 11181 N 5 45090 F 09/04-15 55 15 77 22 E 12 12 2 3 NW12 12282 N 5 46600 F 09/04-16 55 15 77 23 E 12 3 11623 N 5 44541 F 09/04-17 55 15 75 24 E 10 3 10964 N 5 42483 F 09/04-18 55 15 74 25 E 9 9 2 3 NW14 10305 NE 5 40424 F 09/04-19 55 15 69 29 E 8 3 8011 NE 5 31154 P 09/04-20 55 15 64 35 E 7 3 5718 E 5 21883 P 09/04-21 55 15 61 40 NE 6 6 2 3 N14 3424 E 5 12613 P 09/04-22 55 15 58 43 N 5 3 2392 SE 3 8483 P 09/04-23 55 15 56 47 N 3 3 1360 S 2 4353 P 09/05-00 62 10 52 53 N 3 3 2 2 N 9 328 CALM 223 P 09/05-01 62 10 48 59 N 3 2 272 CALM 275 P 09/05-02 62 10 46 63 N 3 2 216 W 2 328 P 09/05-03 62 10 45 65 N 3 3 2 2 N 7 160 NW 2 380 P 09/05-04 62 10 44 66 NW 3 2 152 NW 3 383 P 09/05-05 62 10 43 65 NW 3 2 144 NW 3 386 P 09/05-06 62 10 43 65 NW 3 3 2 2 NW 9 136 NW 3 389 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20090902.WESTC.01/BOU