FNUS75 KPUB 021828
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK MOUNTAIN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1228 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2009

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO PUEBLO WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH AS OF 1200 MDT.  WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEING
REALIZED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BEHIND BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR
THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH BEST PRESSURE
RISE WELL EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...THE BOUNDARY MAY NOT MAKE IT TO THE
BURN SITE...THOUGH STILL EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
1300 AND 1400 MDT WITH LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
THOUGH CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP LOWS MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY MODERATE RH RECOVERY
EXPECTED. UPSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OWNING TO BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG WITH WETTING
RAINFALL.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(50 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST 9-14 MPH UNTIL 1400 THEN BECOMING SOUTH
                    TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 11500 FT AGL AFTER 1000.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL
                    1700...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(68 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(35 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49F.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-58 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1800 THEN
                    WEST TO SOUTHWEST 4-9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN EAST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(62 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST TO SOUTHWEST 3-7 MPH UNTIL 0900 THEN SOUTH TO
                    SOUTHEAST 6-12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 9500 FT AGL AFTER 1000.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN NORTH AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.

$$
FORECASTER...WANKOWSKI
REQUESTED BY...PIDC
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090902.BLACK.02/PUB